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How well did this simple timing scheme do since 2009?

I haven’t looked into it. I did follow along with the GEM strategy for a while, and I don’t think it was keeping up due to whipsaws.


Not that great. Due, as you experienced, to whipsaws.

1/1/2009 to 1/1/2017, 90/10, Initial $1M, 4% SWR
Ttl withdraw $345,682
The non-timing final value: $2,048,236
Timing final value: $1,260,339

This is why a better timing method is Growth Trend Timing (GTT), which ignores the sell signal if the economy is not in a recession. I don't have that modelled in this spreadsheet, though.

Timing is like a fire insurance policy. It does not protect you against small losses, so those always cost you. What it protects you against is LARGE losses. In a period where there are no large losses, all you have are the small losses.

The market has been in a long bull market since 2009.
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