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No. of Recommendations: 4
Okay, I am entering the contest on the lunatic fringe end -- I've taken a small short position in September 35 calls. I just don't think this stock is worth what it's selling for. Per RSR, about a 40% NAV premium. Something like 10.5x AFFO. For a hotel stock? For any REIT that's a pretty high multiple. I don't care how long their leases are for, they do have to renegotiate them at some point. I just think the hotel REIT money flowed into this one after 9/11, it being the only relative "safe haven" in that sector.

And I think most of the other hotel REITs are way overdone now too, given the prospects for recovery in that sector. Most folks seem to think we're looking out to at least 2003, and maybe as far as 2005 for a real recovery in that sector. The only ones I hold any significant position in now are MMH and LQI. MMH I think is misunderstood, and will (I hope) pop for one reason or another in the next couple of years. With LQI, I think it's selling $1 or $2 below NAV, debt is low, and I like the new management team a lot. I think they are going to aggressively grow the company in a very conservative manner (if that makes any sense).

For what it's worth, I am really light across the board right now. I think there is a lot of downside room for REITs, and I think it is unlikely (although of course not impossible) that there is much upside. However, with the exception of HPT, I'm not actively betting against upside, but rather betting that the probability of down or flat is much more likely (price-wise, not total return-wise). Light for me means lots of covered calls, short REIT index calls out to June, with net exposure in a big up move of about 50%, whereas my "normal" exposure is about 150%.

I don't claim to have a crystal ball. Just playing the probabilities as I see them. I don't mind getting paid in option premium to bet that there isn't a lot of upside in REITs right now. My only significant exposure to REITs is in office, and much of that is with covered call positions (EOP in a strange option position, CRE outright (no options available), TZH, CLI, KRC, HIW, RA all with in-the-money covered calls).

Regards
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<<MMH I think is misunderstood, <<

Mr.Joe,

MMH, I am POSITIVE, is misunderstood. I only hope that it isn't you and I who are misunderstanding it.

........Rob
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What an appropriate topic on this day when HPT again pokes its head into new-high territory and analysts are raising price targets on it.

Maybe we're putting too much emphasis on NAV? I think REITNUT once said something like, "NAV estimates don't mean much in the hotel sector." Certainly that was true on the way down for Patriot American. Might it be true for HPT on the way up?

REITNUT, why are NAV estimates particularly unreliable or unmeaningful in hotels as opposed to other property sectors? Is it because NOI is so volatile it's hard to know what is the right NOI to capitalize?

How old is the contest? I want to close by writing:

"Day XX of the HPT holdouts contest and I'm still in," sort of like Walter Cronkhite during the Iranian hostage thing ("America Held Hostage, Day 242"). When you're holding a stock in a taxable account that you think is really overpriced, but it keeps going up and you keep not selling, it is kind of like a hostage crisis, don't you think?
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<<I only hope that it isn't you and I who are misunderstanding [MMH]>>

Rob, me too, although that is certainly a significant possibility!

Luckily, I am starting to learn not to bet the ranch on these "misunderstanding" concepts, as those who pushed the price down often know more about it than I do. It makes me much more comfortable when I understand what those folks are thinking (such as in the case of Sunrise Assisted Living (SRZ), which I like and which has many detractors whose case I understand quite clearly).

I am not sure I really understand the case of those who have pushed MMH all the way down to where it is now, so my position is relatively small (for me) as a percentage of my portfolio.

Regards

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Robfinkii/MrJoe, I'd be interested in hearing the case for MMH. In what way is it misunderstood? Why do you think it is undervalued?
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Robfinkii/MrJoe, I'd be interested in hearing the case for MMH. In what way is it misunderstood? Why do you think it is undervalued?

tjberk, the short answer is that a pretty solid positive cash flow is obscured by amortization of intangibles, other D&A, and one-time charges over the past couple of years. Amortization of the intangibles is irrelevant, other D&A probably overstates the real expense, and hopefully there won't be a perpetual stream of negative one-time events.

Missteps such as the cancelled merger with American Skiing don't help matters, either.

IMO, there is a lot of upside if the upscale hotel sector recovers at some point. In the meantime, solid cash flow (despite negative reported earnings) should keep the boat afloat.

As to management, I think they are talented, but I also don't trust them to be as completely straightforward about issues as some other management teams (say, KIMCO or AMB) -- I think they are likely to spin a bit, although certainly nothing unethical or improper.

I am currently going through the 10-K, and will perhaps post again if I have anything useful to say. Perhaps some more detail rather than just an overview.

Regards
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No. of Recommendations: 5
MrJoe, I'm with you on HPT. Your post prodded me into shorting HPT today at 34.58. And since I was in a shorting mood, I also shorted USV at 13.64. With HPT, there is risk that people are missing that is hidden by their current triple net structure. This structure doesn't make their hotels any more valuable than those by other hotel REITs, yet they are valued way above others. Additionally they are valued far above what they paid for their hotels, and I'm sure that the hotel market has not appreciated to anywhere near this extent if at all. Their triple net structure is helping them temporarily by pushing all the pain of the hotel downturn onto the companies leasing their hotels. These companies will either go bust or make it to lease expiration and demand much different terms. I consider buying HPT akin to buying an office reit with properties located in an area where lease prices have dropped 40 percent, but because leases don't come due for some time, they continue to report good earnings. And people simply purchase based on current year earnings and/or a nice dividend. IMO, holding HPT because it pays a nice dividend, for lack of great investment alternatives, or because they don't want to pay capital gains taxes is a big mistake. Why would one want to own a REIT that sells well above the value of it's real estate that doesn't grow earnings. And everytime I've held onto something that I wanted to sell due to tax reasons, I have lived to regret it. Gifts like the current HPT stock price don't come around that often, and it is hard for me to understand why those long HPT don't want to accept the gift. Don't look a gift horse in the mouth. Since HPT management was issuing equity when they sold below NAV, and they love to issue more shares to grow the size of their REITs, I have to believe to believe they will be issuing equity soon. And simply by dump luck, this time the offering will actually raise NAV. Just as an aside, I purchased HPT-A today at 25.26 -- clearly a superior value to the common.
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No. of Recommendations: 7
tjberk writes: Your post prodded me into shorting HPT today at 34.58.

tjberk, one comment on that: I am hesitant to actually short REITs, because you pay so much to hold the position, i.e., you have to pay the divs. What if HPT just sits around at this level for a year? That costs you $2.84 at the current div! That's why I like shorting the 35 call instead -- obviously the potential upside is a lot lower, especially if the stock tanks soon before many divs pile up, but basically I get paid to sit around. I took in $1.05 for the Sept. 35 calls, and if it's sitting around this price when that one expires, and my fundamental views haven't changed, I'll take in another similar amount to go out another six months. As long as the stock is $35 or less at the Sep expiration, I make about a 3% return on my exposure to the stock (1.05/35) for a six month investment -- a bit over 6% annualized, without actually tying up any cash (so, maybe with current rates that's worth about 8%). And, it's a general hedge on my remaining hotel and other REIT long positions.

If you short the stock here, in six months you'll need to see the price at 32.11 (34.58-(2.84/2)-1.05) to match my return, whereas I see that return at any price under 35. Of course if it goes lower, you see a greater return, and mine is capped. Additionally, I break even at 36.05, versus you at 33.16 (no commissions in those calcs, but for me at least they are about 2 to 4 cents per share, depending on the scenario that unfolds). Plus, as I said, I get paid if nothing happens, and you pay.

Just some food for thought.

Regards
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tjberk .....are you not a little concerned about adding to pfd. holdings in what appears will be a rising interest rate environment?.........or, is it strictly an income vehicle that you will hold "no matter what"?
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No. of Recommendations: 5
Tjberk writes: "Their triple net structure is helping them temporarily by pushing all the pain of the hotel downturn onto the companies leasing their hotels. These companies will either go bust or make it to lease expiration and demand much different terms."

This situation reminds me of one of my better mistakes in investing. In 1997 a bit an oil boom was on, and I was with an exploration and production company which had several offshore drilling rigs under contract. The contracts came up for renewal and the price leaped from $30,000 to $70,000 a day. (yep, it's an expensive business). We had no choice but to pay it, and signed a three year deal at the new rate. I, of course, bought stock in all the big drilling companies and made a killing, at least until the oil prices took another plunge. The prices of the drilling stocks dove as well, but I held on, confident that the long term contracts would keep their profits up. The oil companies basically said "just sue me" and all those contracts were terminated early.

I just saw that Shiloh Inns, a privately owned chain of about 50 hotels in the Northwest declared bankruptcy, unable to recover from the hit their cash flow took last year. I'm sure the tenants of HPT are similarly distressed and suspect HPT may soon find themselves in a position of their leases changing through negotiation or default.

Of course, as indicated above, I'm frequently wrong....

Doug
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<<tjberk .....are you not a little concerned about adding to pfd. holdings in what appears will be a rising interest rate environment?.........or, is it strictly an income vehicle that you will hold "no matter what"?>>

There is nothing that I buy that I hold "no matter what". Anything is for sale at the right price or if the reason I bought it no longer holds true. If HPT-A moves up to 26 over the next month, and some other preferred I like goes down in price, I could be gone that quick. But when I do make a purchase, it is generally something I am willing to hold for the long term -- i.e. that I believe has good long term value -- because the short term is too hard to predict.

Am I a little concerned about adding preferreds in what might be a rising rate environment? I am a little concerned about any investment I make given the irrationality that I have seen in the markets, but generally I am not overly concerned. If inflation stays low, I don't see long treasuries going up a lot, and a strong economy is good for the REITs that must pay the preferred dividends. Lower rated paper can do well in an environment of economic strength and rising rates due to the fact that the companies that pay the dividends are strengthened. Junk bond movements do not necessarily correlate with the movement in treasuries. So far, holders of REIT preferreds have hardly noticed the rise in treasuries that has occurred. But even if inflation gets bad and rates rise significantly, my guess is that the rest of the market will be harder hit than the preferred sector, and I will be collecting fat dividends that will offset what may be capital losses. If inflation and interest rates rise significantly over the next 3 years, my preferreds will have to drop close to 30 percent in price before I actually lose money. The rest of the market will do much worse. I also believe I have demographics in my favor as a growing number of aging boomers look for relatively safe high yielding income oriented investments.
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I am well aware of the downside of shorting stocks paying a dividend. Hopefully this will be an 18 week trade and I will only have to pay out one dividend. Being long the HPT preferred, the combination of the short and long positions will provide my with a positive dividend as the preferred has a higher yield. Additionally I feel that having a few shorts helps to balance the risk in my portfolio and the dividends I may have to pay out are tiny in comparison to the overall amount that I am receiving.

The problem I have with options is that the spreads and commisions make them very expensive, especially when you have to continue to exit a position and re-enter a new one due to the short time horizon that you get out of the option. The bid and the offer on the HPT calls is .90 to 1.15. That's a 25 percent difference that I must make up for right off the bat -- i.e. I am immediately down 25 percent as soon as I take the position. As the house, Las Vegas would love those odds. Additionally the commission will be another 5 percent and that assumes the good case of the option finishing out of the money. If the option is in the money, then you either end up short the stock anyway or you must buy the option back and sell a new one getting hit with 2 additional commissions and 2 more large spreads. Another problem I have with options is that if the underlying stock does what I expect quickly, I am reluctant to exit the option because of the large cost of the commission and spread. The bid/offer may be .10 to .30, and I don't want to pay .30 to buy back the call, so I keep the position and sometimes the stock moves the other way and I end up losing. I like to be able to get in and out easily. Lastly, as you mentioned, the upside is capped to .90 cents but the downside is unlimited. I considered playing HPT with options, and you make a good case for doing so, but I think there is a case for not going that route as well.
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tjberk, I agree with all your points about the options. HPT's are illiquid. That's why I go out to Sep -- I'd rather go shorter on the expiry date, but with the smaller prices the spread becomes more significant.

Commissions depend on size, but for me they are at 2c to do the option, 2c more if it's exercised, and 1c more to close the position after it's exercised, so that is about 5% of the option premium at the top end.

When I sold the Sep 35 calls at 1.05, the stock was slightly higher, and I put an order in 5c over the bid. It got taken in a little while, probably by the market maker, so I did a little better than the bid. I looked at the implied vol of the bid side, and it was fair relative to the actual historical vol of the stock, so even though the spread seems wide, the options were fairly priced on the bid.

The most significant point you make, IMO, is about the illiquidity of the option position. In a stock with highly liquid options, you could exit the position without such a major bid/ask spread, but with these it is prohibitive, so you pretty much have to hold the trade to expiry or your return gets creamed. EOP, for example, has a lot better liquidity in the options than HPT, thus there are sometimes opportunities to exit at a good price, and of course a stock like IBM or MSFT has much better liquidity yet. Certainly with HPT, you have much more flexibility to trade the position when you short the stock versus sell the calls.

In any event, I completely agree that one is not better than the other, they're just different. My post was making my case for why I like the option trade, but I understand your reasoning for preferring the short as well.

I just have a strong belief in getting paid to wait. REITs in general are like that, in that if you buy them well, you keep getting the divs (in most cases) no matter whether or when they go back up. Those little profits you get from getting paid to wait make up a very significant part of my longer-term returns.

Regards
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No. of Recommendations: 5
Nice conversation between MrJoe and Tjberk.

WRT why MMH?, my only comment is that the case against HPT, which was well made, is the mirror of the case for MMH, at least in part. MMH's management contracts were recently renegotiated because of the changes in REIT regulations. Consequently, MMH as a management company, has less exposure to the actual performance of the properties. At the same time, they have incentives built into their contracts which will reward them if results improve.

HPT has the problem of seemingly not reaping the losses from the falling hotel fundamentals, so the company does better than the underlying real estate- which is a dangerous situation as it cannot last. On the other hand, MMH has the advantage of suffering these losses short term, but avoiding them long-term - along with a kicker if results improve.

OK, it is confusing. But MMH today has a positive cash flow, and it will get better without improving hotel results, and much better if hotel results improve. But, and MrJoe will admit this as well, I have been wrong before. I think MMH had not recovered from 911 solely because it doesn't own real estate. That is a mistake, just as over valuing HPT because it does own real estate is a mistake.
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<<REITNUT, why are NAV estimates particularly unreliable or unmeaningful in hotels as opposed to other property sectors? Is it because NOI is so volatile it's hard to know what is the right NOI to capitalize? >>

Yes, I think that's a good part of the problem. Other issues include:

(a) it is difficult to determine an appropriate sector-wide or geographical cap rate to apply when the prices of so many private market transactions are based on variables that apply only to a specific property, such as the "flag" it flies, who's managing the asset, the nature of the management agreement, what percentage of RevPar comes from convention business, profitability ratios, etc, and:

(b) hotel assets are, arguably, much closer than other property types to a "trade or business" (a point with which the IRS apparently agrees, as evidenced by the fact that a REIT cannot manage its own hotels), which probably makes NAV analysis much less useful in evaluating investment value.

The issue has been made worse by the dearth of private market transactions in recent months. A final point: Green Street, the leading proponent of NAV analysis in evaluating REIT shares, provides NAVs for the 3 hotel REITs they follow (and not for HOT), but generally uses a number of metrics when trying to determine the investment value of the shares, including AFFO yields and discounted cash flow growth analysis.

With respect to HPT, if I were a shareholder (sad to say, I am not), I wouldn't sell or not sell on the basis of someone's NAV estimate for it. Rather, I would try to compare its valuation (on a leverage neutral basis) with that of other hotel REITs and C-Corps and, when trying to apply an "appropriate" multiple to free cash flow, consider that it's cash flow streams are safer than those of its peers, but also not likely to grow anywhere near as quickly. I'd also consider other issues such as conflicts of interest, the lack of internal management (if still true), etc.

Ralph
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I have been following this discussion of HPT with some interest. I can't join the contest as my attempt to purchase HPT post-911 was unsuccessful (I always use limit orders because I am cheap, cheap, cheap).

But I did buy HOT, MHX, HMT and LHO when they were way down. I had no intention of ever selling them (except HOT) - or at least not until new construction could be seen on the horizon. But first HOT, then MHX and then just Thursday LHO, were ripped out of my portfolio against my will because I just don't have the strength to hold onto anything with that much upward force behind it. I especially intended to hold LHO long term. So I obviously would have been an early seller of HPT (sort of was, I guess, when I didn't chase it up to buy).

Looking at leading FFO multiples of 8 to 11 for hotel reits just makes no sense to me. Capex is generally understated as the next needed major renovation is never more than 20 years away. Depreciation may be overstated in GAAP, but it is a real expense nevertheless. Guests don't do their own renovations and if they aren't done, and done well, those stingy guests won't stay there.

I think it is a fine business but I just don't get current valuations, so I am out, except for HMT and LQI, and those may be ripped away by anxious buyers, too, I suppose.
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Confession:

I wrote
"But I did buy HOT, MHX, HMT and LHO when they were way down.... "

Makes me look pretty smart.

But I have already admitted to owning MMH which has not done anything. Another of my picks for the 2002 contest was HUMP, which was the only one of my picks which I didn't have a position in (failure to fill limit, all-or-none orders - remember I'm cheap, cheap, cheap). Well I did eventually fill an order for HUMP and I am a little underwater in that stock. So not every hotel equity that I picked off the slag heap has paid off for me.
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I am a longtime REIT investor but have never used options. This seems a good time to cover some of my current 16 reits with their options (if any). Where can I find a list of REITS with options?Covered writes could possibly enhance returns.
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The website for each individual option exchange would probably have a list. For example www.cboe.com is the Chicago Board of Options website. MrJoeInvestor will probably have a better answer. You will find that because REITs pay a high yield, you won't get much for selling REIT calls. There is not much demand to own REIT calls because you miss out on the dividends of the underlying stocks.
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As tjberk says, the call premiums are puny. I would recommend you use limit orders on options with a fair amount of time left (Oct or Nov) in order to minimize the frictional transaction costs. I personally don't write covered calls for reits because of the low premiums. I suppose I might write a call deep in the money as an alternative to selling (if I still believed in the stock but was concerned with valuation), but the only time I really looked into it - with MHX - the premium on the bid was actually zero to negative, so I just sold the stock. Not paying a dividend, anyway.

When I want to know if a particular stock has options available, Yahoo seems to me to be the quickest way, by clicking on "options" on any of their screens for a stock. I don't know where there is a comprehensive list, particularly one for reits, as there are many exchanges each of which have an option market for just certain specific stocks, without (I expect) any overlap for reits.
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Where can I find a list of REITS with options?

I don't know of an official list, but last time I checked by hand (a few months ago), I found the following to have options (options on HIW just started trading again recently):

CEI
CLI
DRE
ENN
EOP
EQR
FCH
HCN
HIW
HMT
HPT
KRC
MHX
NXL
PCL
PSA
RA
TZH

Not too many out of the universe.

Regards
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Closed at 35.72 today, another 52-week high. Anyone else out? I'm still in (though incredulous). Shorts getting nervous? Yield's down to 8.10%. At what price will you sell? Are you setting trailing stops? Maybe I'll hold out for 38. That would make it a double for me, excluding dividends.
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HPT +24% since beginning of '02.....price only
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<<[HPT] Shorts getting nervous?>>

I have a hard time getting "nervous" over something I think is as overvalued as HPT appears to me to be. I do feel the pain as money goes down the drain. However, that's why I like the short call position -- if it's up here (35.72) come Sep, I still make money. In fact, I doubled my short call position at 1.55 for the Sep 35s today.

I would be getting nervous if this were a high growth sector, where maybe the company could justify the valuation at some point, but this business isn't rocket science, and the range of growth expectations is only so wide. I think it's pretty likely that the worst case is that the stock goes a couple bucks higher by Sep, and I just keep rolling the call position every six months until reality sets in. The farther from 35 the price is, the lower the call premium, and if it goes much beyond 38 I probably get barely over intrinsic value. Well, no free lunch -- there has to be some possibility of losing in any investment position.
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Does anyone have a rule of thumb or rational basis for establishing a "cushion" to be allowed when setting a stop-loss order for stocks like HPT, MHX, etc.?
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Good question REITlover. I don't, other than the old 10%-below-current-price one. There ought to be one based on the historic standard deviation vs. some measure of your tolerance for getting stopped out on a random downdraft.
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Does anyone have a rule of thumb or rational basis for establishing a "cushion" to be allowed when setting a stop-loss order...

I'm not going to answer that, because I don't use them, except to say that I know they are usually based on some type of charting that establishes a point when, from a technical analysis standpoint, it is likely that the trend has changed -- a breakdown below some support level, for example.

I don't believe in stops for my method of investing/trading, because I never hold things that I think are too expensive, just because I think people might bid them up further. That's how I view HPT right now. I only own a stock if I like it as a long term investment from a value standpoint, and am willing to hold it no matter what happens to price, with the only reason to sell without a move up in price being a big change in the fundamentals.

I think stops are often more important when you short stocks, particularly stocks that can move up a lot. For one thing, you can theoretically lose an infinite amount shorting, although REITs don't generally triple and quadruple like some of the "event-based" stocks can (bio-techs or techs that have, say, a new product approved or a new invention that suddenly hits the market). For another thing, when you're short a stock, your exposure increases as the trade goes against you -- i.e., if you short 1000 shares of a stock at $10 per share, you have $10K short exposure to that stock. If it goes to $15, you're down $5000, plus your short exposure now is $15K.

On the other hand, if you buy 1000 shares of that stock at $10, your long exposure is $10K, and if it goes to $5, you lose the $5K, but your exposure has dropped to $5K. So, you can add to the position by simply rebalancing the exposure to that stock back to your original level as a percent of your portfolio (assuming that the rest of your portfolio didn't go down a similar amount with that stock).

This is one of the main reasons I hardly ever short stocks. It's not a symmetrical game. Plus, shorting is a particular art that not many people are good at. The only short positions I have had in the past three years are short index calls on the DJR, and short the HPT options. Shorting the index when I own lots of the underlying stock is a really a hedge, without a lot of exposure to company- or sector-specific events, but taking a short in a particular company is another thing altogether.

All of which (getting back to the question of whether we HPT shorts are getting nervous) brings me to wonder whether I should be nervous, doing something I generally argue against.

Well, I am sticking with it for now... call it an experiment... which should make me nervous, as "experiments" often turn into expensive lessons for me... thinking out loud here, and starting to take on the Missash use-of-multiple-dots style of writing in the process...
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<Does anyone have a rule of thumb or rational basis for establishing a "cushion" to be allowed when setting a stop-loss order...>

I buy a stock when there are good fundamental reasons for owning it and sell it when those reasons no longer exist. If I believed in stop-loss, I would have sold my REITs just in time to miss one of their greatest rallies ever. To me, a stop-loss order is like selling only when someone is willing to pay a low enough price, kind of like selling to the lowest bidder. If you have truly done your homework and stay on top of things, it is crazy to succumb to random noise in the stock market. Presumably you selected the stock in the first place because you had some confidence in beating out the mob.

Jim makes a good point about trying to filter out the noise by basing stop-loss on standard deviations, but for a normal distribution, the standard deviation gets statistically exceeded on the down side roughly 16% of the time. I suppose you could opt for two standard deviations, but why bother?

There is an interesting statistic on today's Yahoo Finance page (http://quote.yahoo.com/). It says that according to an Ibboston Associates study, the annual return on U.S. stocks varied, on average, from the long-term average by 20% for the period 1926-1997. According to Morningstar, the trailing 3-year monthly standard deviation of the S&P 500 index was 16%, close to 15% for the Morgan Stanley REIT index. Those numbers are for indices, not single stocks.

Mark
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post 12752 -- tjberk & MrJoe shorting HPT in mid 30s in '02. How's that for memory? I hope they covered at 29.5 or so.

I'm posting this as a reply to that old thread.
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