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I actually have quite a few metrics that favor such an assessment, including a valuation relative to the replacement value of the company's assets and our outlook for Macau.

I have been a long term critic of MPEL (and a shareholder) thesis. I am a sharholder because I expect returns. I am only calling out for proper risk assessment. Firt Bill and now you choose to berate me over my legitimate comments. Not once, has GG team laid out detailed risk assessment of this investment with all the relevant numbers. GG latest issue simply writes a one liner about it along with travel restrictions. What should I conclude? If you have something more please show it for the benefit of all.

I find it strange that you would hold a massive, early-stage real estate profit to the fire for not turning a profit.

I am not. This is one of the several risk factors that I mention in my post. This is not an overiding factor. We discuss inflate real estate on one side in so many posts and then on the other hand we choose to ignore it as a risk factor why?

It will also always be profitable.
I never said differently. Why would I be a shareholder otherwise? My entire post is about risk assessment. It is NOT about MPEL's investment thesis. You anger is clounding my message.

I don't think it's worth our time to invest in small Chinese companies unless we can earn greater than 20% annualized returns. At less than $12 per share, CGA offers that potential. At $13.50 it does not.

You admit you are micromanaging. Returns in stock market should be based on many years (5+) and investment on several price points. Maybe you don't think this way and that is ok. Everyone has different kinds of investment ideas. You are looking at a 1 year horizon. Such communication helps me calibrate you.

This seems arbitrary to me, and I have no idea what math you're doing to assess the volatility of the Chinese market. I also find it amazing that said math would lead you to such a nice round number.

30% volatility in emerging markets is common. It is based upon that. I have indirect experience of investing in India real estate and stock market for a few decades and this level of volatility is there. In the developed markets the volatility is like 10%. I am ignoring recessions here.

I appreciate your not giving us credit for any market-beating stock picks. I'm just hoping this dumb luck can continue before I'm exposed for being the dolt I am.

How many times did I call you a dolt as the GG lagged the market throughout the downturn? Emotions cloud judgement and also a reasonable debate. How much adulation and credit do you want for your recent success? I can send in a signed certificate to that effect if it helps.


Just because you disagree about the nature of Melco's balance (without any evidence, I might add), you shouldn't make blanket statements about our risk assessment abilities here at GG.

I have tremendous respect for you guys and I show that in many of my posts. I have defended GG when it was called a trading newsletter and I have expressed concerns for GG closing down. But I need you to know that you guys are just human not Gods. My assessment is based on what I see on the boards and in the newsletter. It does not have to be right either. If you disagree and want to indulge in a discussion do so by addressing why the poster feels that way. You are selling a product and I am your customer. I have a right to respectfully convey my opinions and perceptions. You are not a colleague or my boss/advisor to take affront on my questioning what you do and how you do. As my service provider you do get the right to say that you disagree and cannot disclose the details.

Such responses to shut up communication don't help. But if you indeed want it that way, I will shut up. It is your show and I have no intention to be an uninvited heckler.

Anurag
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