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I agree; once one line is up and certfied, the second line should be easier, etc. etc. But look at the numbers: their first production line will be 720k m/year, projected for 2008 and 2009. If 10-cm is successful - two steps away - that raises things to over 2 million meters/year in 2010. And that's if the next steps are successful.

Yet that only would satisfy - in a year - a single order assessment request they've had from one customer alone the past year. Double it? Sure. Now you can handle two such customers - in one year. And neither of those are the Really Big orders Triple it? Ok - three customers a year.

As a practical matter, I don't think little AMSC could scale up dramatically enough to in any way shape or form meet the demand I think they are about to create. They will have to partner with some Big Guys, in a way that won't give a way the store.

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On copper....I think, in a way, we may be in violent agreement. I don't think the cost of copper will be a real driving factor in utility upgrades in urban areas, in terms of transmission cables; and with respect to grid management and reliability, e.g, SuperVar.
SuprVar is the more obvious: grid reliability and sags have to be managed yesterday, much less going forward. If TVA continues to go ok with the operational units, screw the cost of copper; it won't enter into keeping a grid from crashing.

As far as transmission line upgrades in urban areas......... even if copper became free, it makes no sense to pull new copper through the conduits in NYC or elsewhere to replace burned out copper, as electrical usage per customer continues to increase. Can you see the headlines the next time Brooklyn goes down? Con Ed says: "Hey, sure, it couldn't handle the cpaacity; but do you realize how much money we at Con Ed saved by replacing copper with copper and not something more expensive?"

Hence...after LIPA et al hopefully proves out...say, by end of 2007?- the (limited) AMSC capacity will be totally taken up by meeting the increased demand of LIPA expanding their next test phase, and other utilities starting to follow suit----irrespective of the price of copper, I believe.

jp
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