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No. of Recommendations: 29
I am curious why so many here are so focused on the valuation.

Personally, I'm not that interested in trying to estimate the fair value of a share.

However, I am deeply interested in estimating the rate of change of fair value.
That requires coming up with some metric that rises at the same rate as fair value, but need not be anywhere near correct in absolute terms.
Why my keen interest?
I know that in the average year the market price will rise by the amount that the observable value rises.
That will be the same percentage amount that my metric rises.
With wild variations from year to year, of course, but it gives me an idea of what I'm likely to earn as an income.
Without that, I can't estimate whether it's a good thing for me to be invested in.



Secondarily, I like to keep an eye on the typical ratio between my metric and market price. (neither of which is fair value).
You can't buy on dips or sell on mini-bubbles unless you have some notion of what constitutes a level that's cheaper than usual.
I was a net seller in January and a net buyer in March.

Jim
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