Skip to main content
This Board Has Moved

This board has been migrated to our new platform! Check out the new home page at discussion.fool.com or click below to go directly to the new Board on the new site.

Go to the New Site
Message Font: Serif | Sans-Serif
 
No. of Recommendations: 3

You already have this message marked for reply in your Favorites.

I am ready to let stuff ride

Me, too, but in my case more by necessity.

Its like the market is trying very hard to establish a bottom, but there is no conviction. I glance at a couple of factors: the fear/greed index and the trading volume on my stocks.

The fear/greed is showing "fear", but the story is more complicated than that. Two parts extreme greed, one neutral and four extreme fear. I think the extreme greed parts are really the result of the four extreme fears. Put/call ratio and bidding up junk bonds. Stocks themselves are in extreme fear, the money coming out has to go somewhere. With the economy generally doing well, money looking for a home with some return. I think that the forward looking market is somewhat o.k. with the one-year prospects but traumatized by the last 4 months. So, long leaps and, to a lesser extent, buying short term puts. These metrics signal "greed" to the computer but are the product of fear. How Market Volatility is neutral is beyond me. Sure as Hell isn't neutral in my neighborhood. Not sure when I last had less than a 2% daily change in portfolio value. I am 1.5% cash. DW has more, but it is dripping into the market.

Friday was a green day. Up 5.7%. But, that Ol' Debble Mr. Volume. My median volume was 80% average. Affirm was double average, ZI was +50% and SNOW +20%. These are not volumes that should produce 6% portfolio gains. This is the same caution I expressed to Saul when he called the bottom in December.

At 1.5% cash, all I could do this week was de-worsify. If anyone is keeping score at home, my portfolio:


STOCK PERCENT

UPST 27.6
DDOG 12.2
MNDY 8.6
CRWD 7.7
ZS 7.3
NET 6.1
AFRM 5.9
SNOW 5.8
DOCN 5.4
GLBE 4.0
BRZE 2.3
NCNO 2.0
SE 1.6
ZI 1.5
DOCS 1.0


I reduced SE and sold the OKE and SPG. I bought AFRM on 26th and 27th and it promptly cratered. Up 17% Friday to bring me to +6%. Volatility is NEUTRAL? Pig's arse. Started positions in DOCS, NCNO, BRZE and GLBE. MNDY might stand a haircut and I may dump SNOW in favor of increasing those starter positions.

Enjoy the weekend. I'm doing taxes, or trying to. California says form 568 not available. HTF I'm supposed to file? and their chat has not been up so I don't know when the form is to be expected.

Sigh,

KC
Print the post  

Announcements

When Life Gives You Lemons
We all have had hardships and made poor decisions. The important thing is how we respond and grow. Read the story of a Fool who started from nothing, and looks to gain everything.
Contact Us
Contact Customer Service and other Fool departments here.
What was Your Dumbest Investment?
Share it with us -- and learn from others' stories of flubs.
Work for Fools?
Winner of the Washingtonian great places to work, and Glassdoor #1 Company to Work For 2015! Have access to all of TMF's online and email products for FREE, and be paid for your contributions to TMF! Click the link and start your Fool career.