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I can give you a theory, David, albeit it comes from a friend who works in broadcast news for one of the Big Three:

There's a possibility it may not be close at all (I won't say in whose favor, because maybe we truly don't know). Many networks tell their journalists to keep reporting it as 'close' or 'tied.' (This part is fact.)

Why? Because who would watch all this coverage when there's an expected winner?

This is a huge ratings season for news shows. This and war are the only things that really draw viewers for them. The incentive is to continue promoting a very close race. Heck, networks have to pay for the rest of the year somehow.

Now the theory gets more conspiratorial: The polling companies follow suit. After all, who are their clients, their bread and butter? The networks. So maybe it's convenient to leave out the reports of a market segment here, a demographic there, etc. to keep it at a 'tie.' And of course, once one pollster does it, the rest don't want to seem out of whack--even if they're right. So they fall in line with similar findings.

Now, I'm not saying this is all true, but it is a viable theory.
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