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I can't tell you what fund to pick. You have to decide what risks you're willing to take. Index funds are certainly a good choice for a long-term investor.

The tiaa-cref website shows results for all their funds:

http://www.tiaa-cref.org/charts/ra-performance.html
http://www.tiaa-cref.org/charts/mf-performance.html
http://www.tiaa-cref.org/charts/pa-performance.html

Their Equity Index fund seems to average about 11%, which is not bad for a mutual fund.
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