No. of Recommendations: 28
I disagree that a discussion of the reason most of the stocks held here are down significantly today is off topic.

I can't say I disagree, foodles, but I also see Saul's side of the topic clearly.

Here's the bottom line for me. 3 years from now, each of our companies will trade at a particular price. Each of our companies will have an easy-to-calculate price-to-sales ratio (and hopefully an easy-to-calculate P/E! 😊)

So let’s decide what has happened this quarter will have what effect on those numbers 12 quarters out. Will it have any effect? My response is yes and no. Yes immediately and very near-term, the prices will be somewhat “re-shaped” by the sudden downturn. But this will be alleviated by market forces over time, along a scale ranging from much lower prices now, to zero effect towards the end of the 12 quarters.

In other words, will this dip for the software industry, large and painful as it may be for many or even most of us, be relevant 3 years from now? I vote a history-tells-me “No.”

We all “knew” that our holdings were priced quite to the high side of "normal" in spite of the wonderful statistics they were building as they grew. I was more concerned, frankly, when my holdings were running on multiples that were multiples of my expectations. I *KNEW* they were getting ahead of themselves, and some much more so than others. I think many here did, including some smart investors I pay attention to. How often has Bear voiced a decision to move money from one “outrageously” priced stock to one merely “high priced”? How often has Saul himself moved money from one company that he figured (paraphrasing, here) that had more than met his expectations and had very little left to build further price increase on?

So the market has “reset the boundaries” our favorite companies for now. Here’s a shocker: I am more comfortable now, and still believe in my companies more than ever, even after losing a year’s worth of living expenses 3 times on 3 days (plus myriad other losses of course) over the last few weeks.

Am I concerned? Nope. Well, if we start down the “R” word road, all bets are off and I will be hedged, but I don’t think that’s going to happen without us getting warnings of several types, and I mean specifically more than the inverted yield curve (although I realize such an occurrence has preceded the last 7 of 7 recessions.)

Our stocks could have continued straight up the hockey stick handle for 6 months and then slid sideways for 2-1/2 years. Now they can grow for 3 years at realistic rates, which is much more satisfying. At the finish line, the charts will look very different than they would without this “correction” But folks, they will end up in the very same place on the charts, and we will have all but forgotten the September Sucks Caper of ’19. (Well, the wise among us won’t forget, but it will still be distant memory and thought of as “oh, that wasn’t such a big deal”, even though I dare say the most sturdy among us has been shaken a bit, and more than once by the carnage.)

Most of us know how we would handle another period such as 2008, whatever our strategy, although each new "calamity" is rarely the same as the last. But I think the people who are more justified in their fear, and who really get hurt, are new investors who might easily be (or become) shell-shocked without a plan, leading to possibly regretted reactions.

Thankfully Saul, Bear and most posters here are very careful to realize that not no one’s financial goals and situations are identical, and to recommend we not following anyone blindly, but to adjust the best input received here by factors we determine according to each of our own personal situations, goals and needs. Hey, now you know they were deadly serious. 😊

Well done posters, and I hope all of the less confident are heeding the advice, so one day you will be the voice of reason for many listeners the next time the markets start parroting the script of Netflix’s “Stranger Things” with calm.

Like Saul, I’m retired and rely on my ports to live on. If I could go back to being 30, raising a family and building up wealth again, The September Massacre we’ve seen to date, wouldn’t be more than a passing string of events to make me go “hmmmmm…” and then to learn from, and then move on with the day’s business.

Come to think of it, even though I “need” whatever gains I can make, to live on, that’s still how I see the damage done. “Hmmmmm…” Short term. Like a root canal, it hurts for a day or two, then makes our life pain-free.

Dan, holding steady, even OKTA
(and 9.5% cash for opportunity)
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