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I don't know, there's a counter to every one of your points.

a great dividend and no sign that will end

Well, if they were properly financing their pension plan, there'd be nothing left for dividends, that's for sure. However, they could go on for some time sending out the dividend as though nothing was wrong.

a very low P/E

For a reason. In other words, Mr Market is saying that these earnings can't last

a low historical price per share

So either it bounces back, or it keeps going down and down... Doesn't tell me much.

Employees that know the company is in a struggle and jobs will be at risk without contract resoloution

That is probably true, but unions may still hold out to maintain salaries right to the brink of disaster, as has happened so often in other industries. It's hard to take a cut in salary.

new product line

I don't know of any carmaker who doesn't say this, except Ford, who say they have a slew of new products coming out soon.

Tough issues still out there

market share decline: yes

quality issues: yes, and this has been a problem for years and years, it may not be fixable while maintaining profit margins

models that are not sexy in the public eye: speaking for myself, I can't imagine buying any GM car except maybe the Vibe

pension, medical and new contracts: these are the worst problems, IMHO. Just the pension plan underfunding is a disaster waiting to happen. The day they face up to this problem and start pouring $$$ into the plan, you can kiss goodbye to profits for the next decade. The medical costs are nothing new, but may be part of the biggest ongoing problem for GM, which is high fixed costs. New contracts = ?

these low rate loans to buyers (I don't know enough here): check any newspaper, 0% loans are everywhere, but someone has to pay for them.

questionable demand for cars if the economy heats up: I agree, the American consumer is already maxxed out and bought his new car last year (0% financing, etc.), so there's no pent-up demand boom coming.

I'm not saying GM is going down the tubes, but I think the profits are going to be hard to find for the next few years, and I feel much more comfortable on the short side.

I would go over the pension situation with a fine-tooth comb before investing more in this story. The key is to get an idea of how much more of current earnings would have to go into the plan if the predicted 9% return doesn't pan out. Given the enormous number of ex-employees this company has to keep feeding, this single liability may eat up all available profits for the next few decades, even if sales go well. And that's a big if.

Regards, gg
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