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I don't know where intermediate, or even short term, interest rates will be in a few months (or a few days). I don't expect the Fed to push rates up in the next few months, and we will probably see oil prices come down in the late fall, so inflation will look better than it really is.

I agree that we may see oil prices come down a bit, but if you are talking about year-over-year inflation rates, we aren't likely to see any "good numbers" this fall because of the abnormally low CPI numbers last fall.

The idea that a falling dollar will drive longer yields up makes sense, but the world still doesn't have anywhere to put their money except lending it to indebted US Treasury and indebted Americans.

Unless at some point they decide to put the money to work, as invested capital, in other countries. Or maybe to pick up some "cheap" real estate after declines around the world.
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