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I don't mean to sound mean-spirited, but that article contains not a single verifiable fact that supports any of its conclusions. Take this, for example:

He pegs user annualized growth at 29% over the next 10 years, yet marketplace revenue is targeted to climb at a mere 22% pace. In other words, Hanson believes that folks will be spending less -- and a lot less once you begin to bake in 10 years of consumer price inflation. I don't buy it.

The 2009 ASP on the MercadoLibre platform was a little more than $90/item ($2.7b GMV/29.5m items sold). EBay's 2009 ASP in the was about $50/item ($25.7b GMV/@500mm items sold) based on my estimates for the division. This is a function of the fact that people in lower income brackets have more access to the Internet in the US v. LatAm and because Ebay is more of a mature broad market and auction platform while MELI does a lot of big ticket sales (cars) and fixed-price sales.

But if you're going to assume massive traffic expansion downmarket in LatAm (remember the rich are already online), you have to assume ASPs decline. I mean, to do otherwise just makes no sense. Now, if you can make a case that ASPs should go up as the market expands, I'll listen, bu "I don't buyt it" is not by an measure a "case."

Tim
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