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I have a low degree of belief that market bottoms can be predicted with 100% accuracy by anybody over time. The reasons I feel this way is because it against much of my philosophy of life.

Just like I thought the Dogs of the Dow theory was a genius idea....that is until I started to question the theory.....and questions often reveal flaws in just about any theory....

Dogs of Dow:

http://www.sherlockinvesting.com/articles/dogs.htm
http://209.85.175.104/search?q=cache:LbQjQotE9u8J:home.busin...


Now, I believe many or some people believe they can predict all bottoms but I doubt very many do. I believe some people call some bottoms right and other times they are drastically wrong.

Life is sort of like Two face in batman:

http://kr.youtube.com/watch?v=mgRP7JlBfWQ

I am sort of a quantum mechanics man....which means that I believe it is virtually impossible for anyone to have totally 100% accurate predictions on any given subject matter especially as the length of time one must remain accurate increases. Notice I said, virtually impossible, therefore allowing the fact that I might be wrong and consider myself a fallible being. A truly infallible being would therefore be godlike to me....and I pretty much have the same attitude toward God as the late?? Robert Anton Wilson http://www.rawilson.com/main.shtml

The subject of predicting perfectly the future was explored in one of the greatest Sci-fi series of all time that very few people understand...The Dune Series. Dune is basically about a man that has perfect visions of the future and then the question is asked "Is one seeing the future or creating it??"

From Dune....Dune Quotes....something to think about:

"Any road followed precisely to its end leads precisely nowhere."

"The person who experiences greatness must have a feeling for the myth he is in."

" Muad'Dib could indeed see the Future, but you must understand the limits of this power. Think of sight. You have eyes, yet cannot see without light. If you are on the floor of a valley, you cannot see beyond your valley. Just so, Muad'Dib could not always choose to look across the mysterious terrain. He tells us that a single obscure decision of prophecy, perhaps the choice of one word over another, could change the entire aspect of the future. He tells us "The vision of time is broad, but when you pass through it, time becomes a narrow door." And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning "That path leads ever down into stagnation."

"Prophecy and prescience — How can they be put to the test in the face of the unanswered questions? Consider: How much is actual prediction of the "wave form" (as Muad'Dib referred to his vision-image) and how much is the prophet shaping the future to fit the prophecy? What of the harmonics inherent in the act of prophecy? Does the prophet see the future or does he see a line of weakness, a fault or cleavage that he may shatter with words or decisions as a diamond-cutter shatters his gem with a blow of a knife?"

"Deep in the human unconscious is a pervasive need for a logical universe that makes sense. But the real universe is always one step beyond logic."

"The thing the ecologically illiterate don't realize about an ecosystem is that it's a system. A system! A system maintains a certain fluid stability that can be destroyed by a misstep in just one niche. A system has order, a flowing from point to point. If something dams the flow, order collapses. The untrained miss the collapse until too late. That's why the highest function of ecology is the understanding of consequences."

"If you believe certain words, you believe their hidden arguments. When you believe something is right or wrong, true or false, you believe the assumptions in the words which express the arguments. Such assumptions are often full of holes, but remain most precious to the convinced."

"Some actions have an end but no beginning; some begin but do not end. It all depends upon where the observer is standing."

"The trance state of prophecy is like no other visionary experience. It is not a retreat from the raw exposure of the senses (as many trance states) but an immersion in a multitude of new movements. Things move. It is an ultimate pragmatism in the midst of Infinity, a demanding consciousness where you come at last into the unbroken awareness that the universe moves of itself, that it changes, that its rules change, that nothing remains permanent or absolute throughout all such movement, that mechanical explanations for anything can work only within precise confinements and, once the walls are broken down, the old explanations shatter and dissolve, blown away by new movements. The things you see in this trance are sobering, often shattering. They demand your utmost effort to remain whole, and even so, you emerge from that state profoundly changed."

"Most civilization is based on cowardice. It's so easy to civilize by teaching cowardice. You water down the standards which would lead to bravery. You restrain the will. You regulate the appetites. You fence in the horizons. You make a law for every movement. You deny the existence of chaos. You teach even the children to breathe slowly. You tame."

"In all of my universe I have seen no law of nature, unchanging and inexorable. This universe presents only changing relationships which are sometimes seen as laws by short-lived awareness. These fleshy sensoria which we call self are ephemera withering in the blaze of infinity, fleeting aware of temporary conditions which confine our activities and change as our activities change. If you must label the absolute, use it's proper name: Temporary."

"The problem of leadership is inevitably: Who will play God?"

"Power bases are very dangerous because they attract people who are truly insane, people who seek power only for the sake of power."

"Paradox is a pointer telling you to look beyond it. If paradoxes bother you, that betrays your deep desire for absolutes. The relativist treats a paradox merely as interesting, perhaps amusing or even, dreadful thought, educational."

http://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Dune


Just some of my philosophy toward life. It is ok to disagree with it because I am one that thinks there is virtually nothing or anything that is 100% correct.....even my predictions of oil going ever higher in the long term are fallible and could be wrong. I just only believe that the odds of me being right are good over time but I could be wrong.



Rob S
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