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I have no doubt that steel and oil have great demand which will only rise. But then again, their has to be a rationale in the rate of price rise and its comparison with rise in demand. I feel that prices have gone far ahead of themselves. I would hate to put a number here.

In oil, as my data says, the annual rise in demand is ~2%. The exising oil production is able to match it up fairly well even now. Their is a difference and that causes rise in oil price every year to keep the demand in check. That is why I find the price levels irrational. I could be wrong. Maybe this price level is neccessary to bring the demand down even more. There are fears that global production is peaking up and is set to fall. This has happened in the past as well. Nowadays ppl talk about no new oil fields but then their is a ramp up in alternate resources to especially shale oil and oil from sands. Technology is already ramping up. Arctic drilling and drilling in international waters will start happening at some point. There is enough capacity for the next decade. Those supply curves will keep shifting by few years every year. Environment will be effectively sacrificed. I cannot say when solar energy will become viable but their is great effort in this direction. I work in this area sometimes. It is amazing to see how companies across the globe are seriously putting an effort here. Ppl have talked about solar for almost half a century with nothing to show for it. The high prices of oil are clearly a boon for this industry. I have STP.

Bubbles like tech or housing took several years to form. Oil is not at the same level. It is in the begining stages if this rise continues.

There is siginificant economic slow down in India these days. Inflation has shot up from 3% to 12% in last 1 year. Some of my friends are working in the Cement industry and they tell me that a massive capacity build up is happening for the last 3 years. It the next 3 years to the capacity will reach to a point when the prices will drop, at least in the Indian market. Similarly for steel. China and India are both ramping up the capacity and technology. At some point, not far away, the supply and demand curves will cross over.

I am more interested these days in finding out speciality metal firms as they have a great potential ahead due to technological advance.
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