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I haven't finished this but if you forgive any mistakes and the lack of details on the competition then feel free to read. I use Multex a lot if you take it for read they'll put their company in a good light then try to fill in the missing bits by search the usual tech pages plus relevant company home pages. Coalesce the two together add knowledge from critical fools and we should get a reasonable overview.
( If anyone knows more about the competition let me know)

To reiterate.
Light on Competitors.
Light on understanding on the dynamics of what will happen when a superior competetor comes in.
Will companies forgive JNPR loss of speed for a stable product. Or will CSCO loose share and JNPR be relatively unbothered?



Juniper (JNPR)

Introduction - A Switch is not a Router
As networks started to be built out it soon became apparent that switches could not handle all of the infinite possible paths data might need to flow. We needed a device that not only directed packets but could also route them anywhere in the Internet world. If you have almost limitless data end points and route options, any of which can change moment to moment we need a new device. That device was the router. And this is what Juniper makes.

Cisco has dominated the router market but the success of the Internet has led to a data flow ( increase of 2-3% a week!) which led to routers becoming one of the bottle necks. The call for a new generation of wire speed routers ( routing packets at the speed they come in ) has been answered by a number of companies. Foremost among these companies is JNPR.

Juniper is focused on making high end routers. This JNPR web page will give you a great overview - it's quite humbling and puts me off writing any technical stuff. If you want to know JNPR area - read it. Frankly, I've seen at least 1 analyst report just rip this page off.
http://www.juniper.net/techcenter/techpapers/backbone-routers.html

A must read - CSCO still looking like it's at a disadvantage ( March 21st 2000)
http://www.lightreading.com/document.asp?doc_id=289

Market Evaluation

Revenues

Sequentially ( thousands )

1998..Q4.....3,807
1999 Q1....10,044 (+163%)
1999 Q2....17,556 (+75%)
1999 Q3....29,564 (+68%)
1999 Q4....45,442 (+54%)

Q4 Results - http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/000118/ca_juniper_2.html

I won't do Y/Y because it won't tell us anything useful.


But what about JNPR Market Share ?
Market share in the high end router market has steadily increased.
.............Percent
Q4:98...-....7
Q1:99...-...11
Q2:99...-...13
Q3:99...-...15
Q4:99...-...18

Juniper customer concentration.
In 1999 - Only UUNet and Cable & wireless are worth over 10% - JNPR has 56 customers - 15 new in 4Q. The customer base is broadening.

Ryan Hankin Kent estimates the Internet router market will rise from $2 billion in 2000 to $8.5-15.5 billion in 2003. Needless to say these estimates have been steadily increasing.

We can say that since Juniper revenues are tied to the build out of the Internet infrastructure we should expect to see a strong increase of revenue for the foreseeable future.

The inevitable conclusion is for the company to gain a high valuation.

Note these ignore the following revenue streams:
1).JNPR has introduced the M20 router. This is aimed at the edge of the Internet. However we will only see their effects in revenue in the next quarter. We should expect a fast ramp up but smaller margin.
2).JNPR is bringing out a new router class - M160.


Barriers to entry for a new router

The only thing I can see which can spoil the router party being thrown in the Juniper offices would be the introduction of a new superior router. However it faces a number of barriers of entry.

1) Software - the software must be compatible with Cisco's operating systems IOS and now Juniper's JUNOS. This is not a simple matter. Cisco in Microsoft style hasn't documented all the inner workings. Plus if CSCO has any eccentricities then you will have to put them in. I believe that neonetworks has licensed Lucents to avoid this heart ache. http://www.lucent.com/press/1097/971014.bla.html

2) Then you have to convince ISP's to test you're router. Why should they use you're router when a thoroughly tested one is already available? Subsequently getting into the market is more difficult while the providers have two good suppliers.

3) Even if they get their router into a user it will take a while evaluating it. All you're first sales will take time until people are convinced you are selling the real McCoy. If Juniper / CSCO comes out with something subsequently then you are back to square one again.

Taking pluris as an example which introduced it's router in May 3, 1999 - from the news announcements I have only seen trials and no sales. After almost a year.


Investment Issues

Hold, Hold, Hold - Issues that don't concern a JNPR investor

1) Switches and optical switches - A switch is not a router. A switch cannot do what a router does.
2) Optical Routers - what optical routers will do when the eventually get
onto the market seems to be to route a wavelength of light. This is not
what JNPR will do. To get routing you will have to convert from optical to
electrical before knowing where the packet of information needs to go.
3) High valuation - well we all have our tolerances - but a five fold increase in 3 years is the reason for the high valuation


Do I sell? - Issues that do concern a JNPR investor

1) CSCO - currently at a technical disadvantage to JNPR it has option of buying a successful startup (presuming one does become successful) and let there massive sales and marketing do the rest.

2) Next generation startups - before you take any threat seriously
a) Real world demonstration compatibility with CSCO and JNPR systems
b) Be technically better and at least as cheap
c) Access to significant sales and marketing
d)Finally JNPR has a foot in the door and become primary and secondary suppliers to many ISP's anyone going into the market now will face up to less tolerance - JNPR got a lot of time to test there routers ISP's have an alternative to CSCO and give less time to new startups.
e) JNPR loosing market share to them.

3) Market share


Juniper's Competitors

Juniper core router is the M40

The switch fabric handles 40 Gbps and it can pass 40 million packet/s.
The next generation from Juniper is meant to be called M160 so I am guessing it will handle around 160Gps/160 million packets/s but well will have to wait.

Avici.................-.- Terabit Switch Router (TSR) availability????, Originally had relationship with Nortel but no more.
Cisco.................-.- GSR 12000 family - my impression is that JNPR has superior router - CSCO is making up by sticking putting multiple switch fabrics together to work in parallel to match JNPR and the difference they make up in marketing.
Lucent................-.GRF ( aquired Ascend ) has software issues preventing wide acceptance NS , AV
Lucent................-.NX 64000 through Nexabit
Neo Networks...-.SteamProcessor 1000 - 120 Gbps - 100 Mpps
Neo Networks...-.SteamProcessor 2000 - 512 Gbps - 400 Mpps
Tellabs...............-.Everest ( aquired NetCore systems) IP routing + ATM switching architecture - NS , AV
Pluris.................-.TNR - 1440 Gbps switch fabric + 495 Mpps, MPLS - available 4Q 2000
Unisphere..........-.Giga Packet Node - NS , AV

NS = Nothing Special about Specs
AV = Available Now
Mpps = Million packets per second


Neo

http://neonetworks.com/
Neo using Lucents OS (called Inferno )
http://www.lucent.com/press/1097/971014.bla.html
http://www.forbes.com/tool/html/98/may/0504/side2.htm


Pluris

See their news
http://www.pluris.com/html/corpnews3.html

Pluris is a member of ODSI - it is worth keeping an eye on ODSI because they are a band of the new networking upstarts that could produce networking giants.
They are led by Sycamore ( SCMR)
http://www.pluris.com/html/optical.html

Pluris product
http://www.pluris.com/html/product.html


Juniper Major Customers

AT&T
C&W
Frontier
GST Network unding
Sprint
UUNET
Verio

Other Reading

CSCO and JNPR wrapup - Light reading
http://www.lightreading.com/document.asp?doc_id=103
HotProduct
http://www.data.com/issue/990107/npn1.html
http://www.zdnet.co.uk/pcmag/tinas/1999/41.html
http://www.juniper.net/news/nikkei_awards.html

The Lone Router
http://www.techweb.com/se/directlink.cgi?DAT19990921S0001
CompanyInfo
http://www.individualinvestor.com/quotes/market.asp?ticker=JNPR&report=cs
JNPR supply an all IP network
http://www.yipes.com/press_box/pr_0306.html
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