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I know that many people like to shade their allocation as you mentioned, by slowly shifting to higher (or lower) bond allocations. That's always struck me as being too hesitant, and lacking conviction. Works for some people, but I'm not of that mind.

Just a comment on this, I look at in a completely opposite light. I'm "managing" 20+ years of maximum 401k contibutions from two incomes plus monthly after tax contributions. I'm not prone to change course due to the latest blog entry or market report because it "lacks conviction".

I didn't get to the position we're in by being spontaneous. I view it as an ocean liner pushing through the rough waters vs a speed boat trying to navigate every wave. OTOH, I could be headed for an ice berg :)

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