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No. of Recommendations: 15
I love all of my children equally and I'm really bad at this sort of guessing game!

In alphabetical order by ticker:

BLUE: I think this has the best chance of being a ten bagger and being independent. They want to be the gene therapy company, and really, no one else is even close. CRSPR stuff is a pipedream now - even when you combine ALL the CRSPPR companies there isnt really much clinical data, certainly not as much as with BLUE's lenti platform. The problem is that its a new approach that will require alot of investment (time, education, pathways to get tx & follow up, etc)... They have at least 2-3 targets that should be approved by the end of 2022; They are a 4b company. For reference, Alexion, also a rare disease company, is 25b. I suspect BLUE can top that, just not sure when. The risk? well, its all on a singular platform (lentiglobin), and if the platform somehow fails / backfires, well, everything is worthless except maybe their oncology platform, though that may take some more time to develop. There is little competition for their rare disease markets, and they'll certainly have first mover advantage and disadvantage, though oncology more competitive (obviously).

BPMC: Recently re-impressed me with how quickly they move their pipeline. They have two approved therapies in under 10 years - that is the best ever. Literally no one else has ever done this. It is absolutely not a stretch to suggest that they arguably have the most efficient and thorough R&D I've seen from pre-clinic to approval in the last 10-15 years. I was a bit baffled by the Roche collaboration, but it might be for the best and get them more cash by expanding their market much quicker. Plus they still are delivering by just putting out BLU-945 as a candidate likely heading into clinic soon. **IF*** they stay independent, I could see this becoming a big player - like Amgen, Celgene, Vertex, or Genentech; the big difference is that BPMC's meds hit the patent cliff whereas the others, by and large, either play in remote places (cystic fibrosis), or have prolonged patents by way of mabs. Given the Roche collab, I see BPMC as a buyout at some point tbh though. I dont see how it avoids it; I do know their platform, R&D abilities, and current drugs (ava & pralsetinib) are worth more than 4b though. In short, IMO, higher floor, lower ceiling than BLUE.

TCDA: This is the most frustrating one I hold. they have impeccable data that could save tens of thousands of lives annually, and keep even more off dialysis annually. I dont understand the FDA's decision- cosmid & I have spoken about this on the biotech board; this is some of the most airtight data we've seen, perhaps ever. And the CEO has sold off two other renal drug companies in the past. I can not believe this is only a 500m stock- I was buying at 3x this price. With that said, I just cant bring myself to throw more money after positions Ive lost a significant amount on unless the narrative changes. This is essentially dead money until their data comes out in 2022 and an approval at that time, but this is a blockbuster drug that should ring in 2b more more in sales annually. If I had *just* found this stock, I would be heavily accumulating. This gets bought out, at what price and which year, I do not know. I suspect its hard to lose more money in the single digits; slightly more risky than BPMC, more reward as well; potential for 10x from here, but doubt it.

TXG. This is likely the one that I think you can set and forget. The ILMN of our time- likely some bumps periodically, but razor and blade model, big labs cant do without it, and likely a renewed push for science funding in the wake of COVID 19. No competition, great management, expanding their offerings. It is richly valued right now, but i struggle to see this as a loser long term. may not 10x, but to me, a shoo-in to beat the market over 5-10 years. They have no competition, they developed their own markets and expanded them! This is ILMN 20-25 years ago.

Best to make money within 2 years: TCDA / BPMC based off buyout potential
Best long term for chance to 20% or more annually: BLUE / TXG
Most likely to 10x? BLUE (over 10 years, less risk) or TCDA (within 4 years, more risk)
Most likely to not lose you sleep?: TXG / BPMC
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