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I really liked the thought about replacing a hard question with an easier one. For investing, that happens all the time as we try to ask ourselves questions we know we can answer. We want to think about things we're comfortable thinking about. What was great about the project in the book was that people were making predictions on things they knew nothing about. You have to come at it from such a fresh angle.

How can we actively avoid doing this? hmmm This isn't an answer, but a thought that as a writer, I love the precision of words. To answer a question I have to understand it and what all the words mean. So just taking a second, third look to make sure I "read it right."

And an excellent point, Chris, about where does the questioning end. I guess in the project they were picking probabilities. So you're never going to say "I 100% know this stock is going up 20% in the next year." You have to get a probability you're comfortable with. I didn't take statistics in college. I wonder if I should have. Because I kind of see the "everything's 50/50 argument." Something either happens or it doesn't.
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