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I recommend you read this, first:

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6593#comment-648967

(credit to coolprash, who posted it on METaR here: http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=28575379&sort=who... )

Whether this analysis is valid, we can't know. It's semi-anonymous, after all. But the worst-case-scenario is (I think) not priced into the stock, and speculation is at a fever-pitch. Even more than in other trades, the profit/loss scenario for BP will involve a lot more than the premium, and the price at which you sell the puts is the only factor you can control. I'd even say speculation is snowballing; I heard an otherwise perfectly reasonable person express the conviction that it was sabotage, possibly by an environmental group, to get oil rigs out of the Gulf. Seriously.

00Jane (perhaps they used trained dolphins "liberated" from seaquariums?)
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