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I think Nortel will prove itself a king in the optical transport space next quarter as Lucent is slipping badly. They have been unable to execute their strategy of using in-house product development, and continue to lose key people. Their market share is likely to continue to drop. See for a discussion of the market share figures you quoted.

There are likely to be a number of games within the optical networking space. Long-haul transport seems to be a royalty game now, but could become a gorilla game if someone has proprietary control over a technology that dramatically improves transport efficiency (e.g. Corvis). In my limited knowledge, a gorilla game could develop in the optical switching space where there a number of different technologies (mirrors, bubbles, acoustic wave, etc) striving for first mover advantage.

The following article suggests that Sycamore may be facing a strong challenge from Corvis, which is going public soon.

The impression I get from the lightreading articles is that it's still very early. Build-out of optical networking is going to take quite a bit of time. In my community (Milwaukee), TimeWarner has just begun to offer broadband, so I'm guessing it'll be 5 years before I have access to an optical network.

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