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No. of Recommendations: 13
I think we see the patterns we want to see.
But we are all just making it up as we go, otherwise...you could just be a billionaire in a year if we knew exactly the best bets to make and when.

Listening to a sports show years ago, a guy made a comment that I just love, and can't seem to find it attributed elsewhere, so maybe he made it up:

"We are all just monkeys throwing rocks at the moon"

Love it.
Makes me think of the Quest for Fire movie in early 80s, or the scene from 2001 space odyssey or I think it was one of the recent Alien prequels.

I take it to mean we are just reacting, in probably irrational ways, to machinations we can't understand.

So I try to make it simple.
Momentum drove these too high. Obvious in hindsight, but I did feel this way for quite a while, whether it was marveling at TTD hitting $250, or selling MDB at $133 in March on their massive move, or being frustrated at how high ZM, CRWD, and WORK stock debuts were. Even today, NET (Cloudflare) doesn't seem to have learned any lessons, and I am staying far away from that.

Ok...so momentum got out of hand.
How to value them? Do some napkin math, picture them a couple of years out; what kind of revenue, are they profitable at all, what is mkt cap with a more conservative P/S at that point? Add it all up, and see if you have a decent CAGR. I don't have a set-in-stone CAGR, but I think anything you model that gives you 25% or higher is good. Then ask how long do you really really plan on holding; closing your eyes and holding 5 years no matter what, or until you make X% gains, or maybe it is just trade around a core holding until it gets near your goal at which point you either sell or make new goals based on new info.

Finally...would anyone benefit from buying this company? How much would they likely pay to have this company, not only to add/ramp those sales within their own corporation, but also to perhaps remove a competitor?

So I look at ZS and I just know Cisco and others would happily pay $6b for ZS...although ZS mgmt isn't likely selling anywhere near that number. That provides a stock floor, imo.

Oracle CEO resigning...been a dinosaur stock for ages...so what is MDB worth?
In the ad spend world, where titans have been made (FB, GOOGL, and cable tv giants, etc) what kind of value does TTD have? $10b? Would a privacy-loving company like Apple benefit from further poking Google and FB in the eye about privacy and by buying TTD and pushing privacy-friendly ad buys throughout the industry? Probably never happen, but you get the point. These companies are more valuable than 10x their sales, imo.

I don't know what to do with rest of my cash. May spend it today or wait. I think I will know the oppty when I see it, and if I don't catch the absolute bottom, hopefully I am not too far off.

Dreamer <--- just a monkey throwing rocks at the moon.
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