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I think we're in an official recession now.

I think the call of a recession is as questionable as the standard timing signals. The reason everything went down is because of the virus, not because of the usual things that cause a recession.

Wedsesday I got an email from Sam's Club, out of the clear blue sky.
"Your local club is hiring today! If you or someone you know is looking for work, please click the link below to check out all open positions.

We've instituted a faster hiring process, so you can start work quickly (often in just a few days)."

Yesterday, driving into town, we saw "Help Wanted" signs in several of the store windows. And a billboard of another place saying that they are hiring.

The bums holding out "hungry, please help me" signs on streetcorners are getting told "XXX is hiring, go there and get a job."

But, SAM'S CLUB?? I am just a customer with a login, why the heck are they blindly sending out help wanted emails to run-of-the-mill customers?

Scraping for anecdotes to believe what you want to believe?

The unemployment rate peaked at 14.2% in April. It has improved considerably since then. The latest rate for July is 10.2%. That is still a higher unemployment rate than the peak of the Great Recession. So what do you call something that is far worse than the Great Recession? Not a recession?

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