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I too was unaware of Mr Kish's death. Sorry to hear about it.
Though I never met him, he was clearly a thoughtful fellow, and generous with sharing those thoughts.

FWIW, here is one of his most beloved posts, written in July 2000 and predicting the market price in 2010.
https://boards.fool.com/berkshire-2010-12876199.aspx
also FWIW, his prediction was $140611, which turned out to be high by a fair bit.
The date at start of January 2010 was only $99330, and the average price in the six month period centred on that date was only $106800.
But the stock was particularly cheaply at that point, P/B 1.22 at year end 2009.
Had it been trading at a more typical valuation he wouldn't have been nearly as far off.
The market price had already exceeded his predicted target by late 2008.
So, for a ten year prediction, it was a surprisingly sensible estimate.


The site does not come up for me anymore - just the html page shows up. I think the tech (applet ?) is old.

You'd probably have to override the security settings on your Java.

If it's the numbers you're interested in, I saved them all long ago.

I added a couple of columns on the right.
One is 85% of the average of the five scenarios from John's web site. The last is my "two and a half column" method estimate.
85% is just the number that maximizes the similarity to the "two and half column" number.
Coincidentally it tracks market price pretty well.

FY     Liquidation   More           Conservative   Cost of   Optimistic   85%  of   2.5 column
Conservative Capital average

1981 960 1175 1076 1263 1059 941
1982 1118 1360 1368 1503 1444 1155
1983 1494 1933 1798 2124 1958 1582
1984 1546 1994 1854 2196 2046 1638
1985 2588 3111 3170 3457 3592 2706
1986 3356 4270 4670 5090 6263 4020
1987 4360 5407 5560 6286 6645 4804
1988 5179 6356 6535 7288 7689 5618
1989 6525 7868 8608 9010 10143 7166
1990 7022 8398 9054 9549 10495 7568
1991 9171 10801 12182 12398 14100 9971
1992 11164 13180 14952 15134 17187 12175
1993 12484 14690 16937 17154 19666 13758
1994 14025 16516 18523 18874 20565 15046
1995 18543 21689 25344 25254 28021 20205
1996 23797 27418 31742 32896 39425 26397
1997 31554 37289 43981 44469 52712 35701
1998 43500 48513 54506 60143 64940 46172
1999 45080 49826 54972 59704 67869 47167
2000 47492 52947 58561 66356 73908 50875
2001 50579 58313 63846 75395 89069 57324 67354
2002 57397 67675 74592 90199 106412 67367 76604
2003 67371 79239 87939 103466 123275 78419 85125
2004 76264 90296 101108 118902 141327 89742 87066
2005 82579 99320 110746 122716 160288 97860 89134
2006 93893 117621 133518 141471 179470 113215 106512
2007 105950 132469 149626 160394 201829 127546 117409
2008 89863 112968 125919 151613 180158 112289 108433
2009 97767 116409 130419 143603 175056 112753 116676
2010 98248 137830 165409 174067 229914 136930 133482
2011 108862 156719 188160 208341 266377 157838 147259
2012 127088 180503 216365 235602 300153 180151 172482
2013 147491 208247 251363 265455 340117 206154 205344
2014 232809
2015 249006
2016 264333
2017 300940


Jim
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