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I was just discussing this with my son. In the short term, there will be more demand for mining than nVidia (and AMD) can possibly meet. In the medium term, Samsung (nVidia GPUs) and TSMC (AMD GPUs, CPUs and APUs*) are growing capacity as fast as they can. Apple also uses TSMC, but at 5 nm it is a full node ahead of AMD. Eventually, expect AMD to let APUs drift to mostly one (or a half) production node back. Currently, AMD has just started shipping "6nm" CPU chiplets, desktop Ryzen 5000, and server EPYC Milan while Ryzen 5000 APUs are 7nm. But 6nm is more an evolved 7nm process than a new node. nVidia is currently using Samsung as a fab for its leading-edge GPUs.

In the medium term, which matters for 2022, there will be more capacity at TSMC, but nVidia will still be using Samsung's 8nm process for its next generation. Do I expect capacity for leading/bleeding edge silicon to meet demand? Maybe, but meet not exceed is the way to bet.

Long-term? For this question is when TSMC opens its new fab in Arizona. It is expected to ship production parts in 2024, which for the stock market is very long-term. Will that mean you should sell nVidia in 2023? No reason to guess. If AMD is still eating Intel's lunch, they may still be in a situation where a wafer of CPU chiplets is worth more than a wafer of (by then) GPU chiplets. If so, AMD won't be putting price pressure on nVidia--just Intel.

There is another elephant in the room. nVidia is in the process of buying ARM. The ARM processors will be competing in servers with Intel (while AMD walks off with most of the high-end and superscale server business). I don't expect ARM to have much of a position in mid to high-end desktop systems. In laptops and low-end desktops, expect ARM chips with nVidia graphics to go head to head with AMD APUs. Intel? They have been giving away unused GPUs on desktop CPUs for years now. (Yes, those GPUs do get used in laptops, but even then most high-end laptops with Intel CPUs come with nVidia graphics.) That situation will continue long-term. As CPUs (and GPUs) get faster, laptops are replacing desktops. (Some would say that desktops are obsolete, but then I would have to explain the new Ryzen 7 desktop system I am typing this on. ;-)

So longer-term I expect that nVidia's stock price will depend on mining, and how much of the laptop business nVidia can eat up with nVidia produced laptop chips with nVidia CPUs and GPUs.


* CPUs with GPUs on one chip. Only affect capacity as far as this discussion is concerned.
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