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i went back to the link in an earlier post and downloaded an excel spreadsheet that is supposedly the companion to "Irrational Exuberance", called "ie_data". i believe that is the one you are referring to.

That is correct. If you got your raw data from the University of Chicago instead of from Shiller's Yale web site, then you're using the correct data.

the thesis remains that since 1945, market prices have consistently led economic profits...

I agree with you.

After the Crash of 1929, stock market prices advanced until April, 1930, anticipating an economic recovery that did not materialize. Let's hope that the current stock market rally is not the first one since 1930 to get it wrong.

jkm929
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