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No. of Recommendations: 3
I will state for a fact that the 2g wire was suppose to be the impetus for AMSC to penetrate the market. I don't recall what ate for sure, but I believe 2003/2004, AMSC would be rolling out x miles of wire, blah, blah, blah.

It is interesting to look at the past in order to determine if a management team is good at getting the future right. To say AMSC has been good would be incorrect. But, to ignore today's company without looking at its technology is as wrong as projecting the past as a straight line to the future.

It would also be foolish to not look at Sumitomo (the big fish in the superconducting wire pond) and see if they were optimistic with their projections. Trouble is, they make very few projections because superconductor wire is a very small part of their business. They are a big unknown in terms of R&D.

I thought the key to AMSC's superconducting future was higher temperatures. For example, tests showed that 348 superconductors with today's performance levels can already be utilized to produce a 36.5-MW (49,000 horsepower) HTS ship propulsion motor capable of operating at 38 degrees Kelvin -eight degrees higher than the operating temperature of the 36.5-MW ship propulsion motor that AMSC is shipping to the U.S. Navy this year, which utilizes the company's 1G HTS wire.

The company stated, "Our objective is to increase the operating temperature of large-scale electrical equipment, such as motors and SuperVAR synchronous condensers, much further - to about 55 degrees Kelvin - which will increase these savings further."

That sounded good in 2006. But, consider this. SuperPower (a partner with Sumitomo) is producing wire that operates at 77 K.

http://www.superpower-inc.com/20070227.aspx

AMSC has had great success with Windtec. That is what is driving this stock. If AMSC' 2G is going to be a market leader has yet to be proven.

Just one person's opinion (who doesn't own the stock).

W.D.
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