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I would point out that absolute rates have little bearing on how much a bank makes. As you said, it's the spread. You can get some indication by looking at the short vs. intermediate or long-term rates. The difference between those rates tells you something about how profitable banks as group might be going forward. When yield curves invert, banks are in trouble same as the economy as a whole.

Not quite accurate. The higher the rate, the more that spread CAN BE. As you mention, your local national bank isn't going to increase their savings rate at the same speed that they will increase lending rates. For example, mortgage rates today are easily 1-1.5% higher than they were a couple of years ago. Your savings rate has not likely grown as much. Absolute rates matter quite a bit. You simply cant have a very profitable spread that is much greater than 3% in a very low rate environment. Banks were not very profitable when the fed funds rate was 0% and the Prime rate was 3.25% (now it is 5.5%).
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