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I'm curious about your reasoning - VERY diplomatically put Ted! LOL.

Absolutely they can & at least once each the last couple of years have high drawdowns, so yes there is a higher volatility risk. But: PGX has outperformed BIL (cash) by 14% the last 3 years, even accounting for the Q4 drops in 17 and 18.

I am (perhaps over-)confident in my moving average tracking warning system to tell me when it's time to get out to actual cash. To your point, PGX / PFF troughed 9+% from 8/31/19 to 12/30/19; I would have been out with a 4% trough max by the end of October, and back in early Feb. Interesting to see how it mirrors large cap stocks recently.
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