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I'm not sure when we're going to see numbers that reflect what we can think of as the "natural demand" amount. Certainly not until Tesla stops backloading their quarterly deliveries.

So I'll predict that this quarter you'll see similar numbers of Zoe and Model 3 units, and next quarter Tesla will be well ahead.


Visiting this thread again, the May numbers from France still showed Zoe volumes far ahead of the Model 3 - 1,331 to 321. Then again, it also seems like Tesla still hasn't yet managed to unwind the "wave" pattern of their quarterly deliveries in Europe - Model 3 deliveries in all the large European markets (Germany, Norway, France) for May have more or less matched April numbers, rather than the March numbers. So we still have quite some time to wait for "natural" levels to show up on in monthly deliveries.

http://ev-sales.blogspot.com/2019/06/france-may-2019.html

But even quarterly, given the lead that Zoe has in April and May sales (more than 2K units), and the fact that Zoe outsold the Model 3 in March in France (making a huge turnaround in June a stretch), I think it's very unlikely that Model 3 will match the Zoe this quarter.

Q3 is more likely to favor Tesla, I think. The model update for the Zoe is expected to hit at the end of the quarter - a 20% increase in battery capacity (and 30% increase in range), with prices expected to remain constant:

https://www.drivingelectric.com/renault/zoe/903/new-renault-...

...and that might drag down Q3 sales of the existing Zoe model. Perhaps by then Tesla will have smoothed out the 'wave' of European deliveries as well.

Albaby
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