No. of Recommendations: 11
I've backtested this technique. The rules are a bit subtle (or I'm just slow) and I had to re-read it a bunch of times to get it.
Basically:
1) Buy signal is close above the SMA.
2) Sell signal is close below the SMA *unless* any of the Fed signals are positive. That is, only if *all* of them are negative.

Restated, you only take the sell signal if we are in a recession. If not in a recession, buy/hold and don't sell, no matter what the SMA (or NH/NL or whatever) signal says. Make logical sense.

In followup posts/comments, he said that further study indicated to him that the unemployment (employment?) signal was all that was needed, and was the most useful.
FWIW, I decline to look at that, because there is too much political shenanigans with un/employment figures. They lie, like Red China does, for political reasons.


The signals one has to use are always delayed at least one month,
Which does not matter. True tops are usually rounded and you've usually got plenty of time to get out before the market rolls over.

Remember .. the purpose of timing is not to increase your return, it's to get you out before the full depths of a bear market. Other than these bad bear markets, you want to be always in the market. Using these Fed recession signals to negate a SMA sell signal accomplishes that. My backtests increased the time-in-market from ~75% to ~85%.
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