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I've only been in Portugal a little over three months so I'm no expert but there seems to be quite a difference between the cooler and wetter north and the hotter and dryer south. This Summer has been much cooler than normal.

Denny Schlesinger
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Do you plan on selling ITM or ATM calls?

Selling too far ITM doesn’t seem to make much sense as the time value will be reduced. Selling IV without much TV doesn’t seem to make much sense.

AJ
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Do you plan on selling ITM or ATM calls?

Selling too far ITM doesn’t seem to make much sense as the time value will be reduced. Selling IV without much TV doesn’t seem to make much sense.


I had the same impression when I started out but Ellman has me reconsidering. I don't know yet but your questions points out one of the problems of looking at fundamentals instead of at results. Ellman bases his picks on a range of percent returns, if he gets that return in-the-money, go for it

Methodology

Option chains were evaluated for strike selections based on bear market environments (in-the-money strikes), neutral to bull market environments (out-of-the-money strikes) and a third portfolio where the average returns meet our goals. The stated goals for this analysis are 2% – 4% initial time value returns with upside potential or downside protection depending on overall market assessment and chart technicals.


[2% – 4% in 30 days is an example I found but I'm not sure of what his range is]

https://www.thebluecollarinvestor.com/establishing-our-optio...

In my case it would depend on "$ per day." The current version of the Call Selector eliminates in-the-money calls.

Denny Schlesinger
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Hi Denny, I'm very happy you're enjoying this book. I've found it to be a fun read, and I definitely learned some interesting strategy possibilities.

I spent yesterday evening doing some math with covered calls (because clearly that's the perfect Friday night activity). I've been using Excel to play with some scenarios. And in a way I like it - doing things manually lets me play around with some of the numbers to see what I'm getting.

And what I found is, indeed: the best ROO (return on options) is from calls that are at the money or very closely in the money. Not too bad (ROO) at very slightly out of the money calls either, you get upside opportunity but no downside protection - so end of day depends how bullish/aggressive you are. (a whole different topic I've got a lot of thoughts on! perhaps I'll write about this on Monday - I need to not be stuck at my computer on a beautiful Saturday ;) ) And of course as Ellman says, ITM have higher deltas vs OTM, so unwind scenarios (if required) are easier too.

Another thing I found, the best ROO (whether just return on options or even including upside potential) comes from calls with expiry close. That means, weeklies are more profitable than monthlies - have you found this to be the case? It makes sense logically (thinking about IV) but I've only looked at a few scenarios, my math isn't comprehensive. But I'm at the point where I think, if a stock doesn't have weeklies, I may as well ignore it.
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I spent yesterday evening doing some math with covered calls (because clearly that's the perfect Friday night activity). I've been using Excel to play with some scenarios. And in a way I like it - doing things manually lets me play around with some of the numbers to see what I'm getting.

Spreadsheets are amazing tools! Very often spreadsheet exercises have shown my intuition to be wrong. Most of my math with php is first checked with spreadsheets. I even used them to model the data flow of my current OOP php framework. They make it possible to visualize complex relationships. The most important piece of software on my very first personal computer, an Apple II, was VisiCalc, the grandaddy of spreadsheets. It was terrific for modeling the complex health insurance policies I was selling.

http://www.bricklin.com/visicalc.htm


And what I found is, indeed: the best ROO (return on options) is from calls that are at the money or very closely in the money. Not too bad (ROO) at very slightly out of the money calls either, you get upside opportunity but no downside protection - so end of day depends how bullish/aggressive you are.

On stocks that that exhibit zero growth the best options are at-the-money. On growth stocks out-of-the-money options are better because you also capture part of the growth. On declining stocks in-the-money options would be best. But I insist this is the wrong way to pick options because growth rate is just one variable in a very complex interplay of growth, time to expiration, strike price, volatility, market sentiment, news, and what not. $ per day (similar to ROO) picks the best calls to sell.

Suppose there are two $150 stocks one of which has calls that yield $40 per day and the other has calls that yield $35, which one would you trade? The one correction I make is setting a minimum dollar amount on the premium to avoid day trading.


Another thing I found, the best ROO (whether just return on options or even including upside potential) comes from calls with expiry close. That means, weeklies are more profitable than monthlies - have you found this to be the case?

Yes.

It makes sense logically (thinking about IV) but I've only looked at a few scenarios, my math isn't comprehensive. But I'm at the point where I think, if a stock doesn't have weeklies, I may as well ignore it.

Wrong! If you are a week away from expiration you have found a weekly whether the stock has weeklies or not!!! As above, find the stock that yields the highest $$$ per day. In my last run two were 8 days to expiration and the other two were 15 days to expiration. As above, time to expiration is just one variable in a very complex interplay...

Enjoy your Saturday in the Sun. Isn't it Winter in AussieLand?

Denny Schlesinger
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If you are a week away from expiration you have found a weekly whether the stock has weeklies or not!!! As above, find the stock that yields the highest $$$ per day. In my last run two were 8 days to expiration and the other two were 15 days to expiration.
I was sitting around thinking about options on Saturday and came to this realization before I read your post! And, I realized I was looking at options just after expiration Friday, which probably had an impact too. Gah, I just wanted to be lazy and whittle down my list of stocks but I suppose I'll have to do an actual three more minutes of work.

On growth stocks out-of-the-money options are better because you also capture part of the growth.
Yes, this is true. It boils down to how bullish you are on the stock.

Enjoy your Saturday in the Sun. Isn't it Winter in AussieLand?
Thank you. Yes, it's winter. It's been cold and miserable and gray but since Saturday the weather's been nice. The weekend was good. Fingers crossed spring is on the way.
I know it's summer on your side of the world - does it get humid in Portugal? I don't mind heat but can't stand humidity!
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I've only been in Portugal a little over three months so I'm no expert but there seems to be quite a difference between the cooler and wetter north and the hotter and dryer south. This Summer has been much cooler than normal.

Denny Schlesinger
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