Skip to main content
This Board Has Moved

This board has been migrated to our new platform! Check out the new home page at discussion.fool.com or click below to go directly to the new Board on the new site.

Go to the New Site
Message Font: Serif | Sans-Serif
 
No. of Recommendations: 1
I'd rather be lucky than good!

In the short run, "Yes". In the long-run, "No", because luck either runs out, or leads one to make bigger bets than can be sustained (which is the same thing). E.g., LTCM, etc. whose bets eventually did pay off, but not before they ran out of liquidity.

Why are shorts favored in the current market over longs as being the safer, higher probability bet? That's what each investor needs to answer for her or himself.

Some will refuse to believe the evidence, which isn't just declining prices, which is the symptom, not the cause. Others will become convinced values and prices are askew, but will still be afraid to act opportunistically. Of the remaining few, there will be two groups: classic value investors putting together shopping lists for when the time is right to put new money to work, and equally classic value investors willing to trade short, which is exactly what short selling is, value investing. Instead of buying growth, you sell trash that you know is trash, because you've pulled their financials and run their numbers. That's why your trade's going to work, and will continue to work, until value and price again come into balance, and the cycle begins again.

The bull is dead. Long live the bear.
Print the post  

Announcements

When Life Gives You Lemons
We all have had hardships and made poor decisions. The important thing is how we respond and grow. Read the story of a Fool who started from nothing, and looks to gain everything.
Contact Us
Contact Customer Service and other Fool departments here.
What was Your Dumbest Investment?
Share it with us -- and learn from others' stories of flubs.
Work for Fools?
Winner of the Washingtonian great places to work, and Glassdoor #1 Company to Work For 2015! Have access to all of TMF's online and email products for FREE, and be paid for your contributions to TMF! Click the link and start your Fool career.