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No. of Recommendations: 1
I'd rather be lucky than good!

In the short run, "Yes". In the long-run, "No", because luck either runs out, or leads one to make bigger bets than can be sustained (which is the same thing). E.g., LTCM, etc. whose bets eventually did pay off, but not before they ran out of liquidity.

Why are shorts favored in the current market over longs as being the safer, higher probability bet? That's what each investor needs to answer for her or himself.

Some will refuse to believe the evidence, which isn't just declining prices, which is the symptom, not the cause. Others will become convinced values and prices are askew, but will still be afraid to act opportunistically. Of the remaining few, there will be two groups: classic value investors putting together shopping lists for when the time is right to put new money to work, and equally classic value investors willing to trade short, which is exactly what short selling is, value investing. Instead of buying growth, you sell trash that you know is trash, because you've pulled their financials and run their numbers. That's why your trade's going to work, and will continue to work, until value and price again come into balance, and the cycle begins again.

The bull is dead. Long live the bear.
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