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If it isn't too much work, how does reducing the "harshness" of this assumption impact the conclusions? What if it's only reduced by 1/3 per year, or 1/4? Does that have a material impact on the model's conclusion?

Hi Fletch,

Oh certainly it does. I don't have the model in front of me, but the whole thing depends on the amount of incremental MW installed each year. If the drop in growth rate each year is less than 50% (33% or 25% drop a year, as you proposed), then more incremental MW of systems would be installed each year than currently modeled. That ultimately means more RV growth and a higher total in 2017 (the last year of the model). And that means a higher projected share price a few years down the road, assuming the rest of the model stays constant.

When building a model, I'd rather be too pessimistic and therefore pleasantly surprised by actual results, than be too lax (thinking I might be more "realistic") and be disappointed. But then, given our human propensity to overconfidence, even being "harsh" I'm probably not conservative enough. :-)

Cheers,
Jim
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