My Thoughts RE This Market

If NTNX, ZS, PVTL et al, have fallen this far with the S&P not even in “correction” territory - not yet at least - what can momo investors expect when sector rotations really kick in during a correction, and perhaps, a crash?

The above comment lacks perspective because it’s not an apples to apples comparison. If NTNX, ZS, PVTL et al go up 50% while the S&P goes up 20% you can expect a similar ratio on the way down, a 10% drop in the S&P would be the equivalent of a 25% drop in NTNX, ZS, PVTL et al.

My fast growers are down between 16.8 and 25.5% from their all time high with a mean of 21.4%. The three indexes I look at are down one third of that.

DJI - 5.2%
S&P - 5.6%
COMP - 8.1%

The proportion seems about right. We are what we measure so we need to be careful about what and how we measure.

The other point to consider is what has been talked about here for quite some time, “What would people do when the downdraft came?” If you are a long time buy and hold and if you think your businesses are solid, why panic? Panic will make you sell at the most painful point, near the bottom. Why the bottom? Becasue you are hoping to get back to even before selling so you get deeper into the hole until panic truly sets in, a lot closer to the bottom. It’s called capitulation. Does this remind you of 2009?

https://i.investopedia.com/image/png/1519039620158/capitulat…

Give the Chicken Little’s a chance to sell. After that low point lots of perma bears missed out one of the greatest bull markets ever. Emotions designed to keep you alive in the jungle suck in the market! :wink:

Denny Schlesinger

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