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If oil is such a bad bet than I wonder why these guys spend time investing in things like Goober Drilling or why Bill Mann likes WTI???...

Who says oil is a bad bet?

It has seemed to be a great bet over 10 years all thru this decade. And at these prices, it is an excellent bet over next 5-10 years. It is all about timing. Oil at $147 (from $60 in one year with a 0.5% net incremental demand (~2% demand, ~1.5% rise in supply)) was a bad bet. The current prices are not. Bill recommended WTI only after the collapse of oil to below $100.

No matter how valuable a commodity is, its price have to be rationalized at the current demand/supply otherwise a bubble forms. Projecting more than 5 years into the future ususally leads to bad choices for most.
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