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If we were all rational investors - I'd agree, but in the short term, psychology of both individuals and markets has at least as much to do with it - coupled to the fact that the markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent means it's not always information, sometimes, more greed or more fear than the other guy is all you need. Both can be created in different people by the same information !

The options market strongly suggests some people are using illegal information today especially on private equity deals not yet announced.

 

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