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I'm not good at predicting results of elections. Yes the election is rigged but it won't matter if the difference in favor of the opposition is large enough. No poll gives Capriles a big lead although the last serious one did give him the lead. The bond market is pricing in a Capriles win as is the Caracas stock market. Several pundits have come out saying that Capriles will win but they seem to all use the last poll I just mentioned as their data source which makes them irrelevant, not additive. As I showed in an earlier post, the opposition beat Chavez 50-48 in the 2010 National Assembly vote.

Frankly, I would not bet on the outcome, I mean the real world outcome because we don't know how the government will cheat. A straight, free vote should topple Chavez.

Remember, there is a lot of money riding on the outcome, who owns the world's largest oil reserves! People kill for much less.

Also, if at 20 you are not a communist, you have no heart. If at 40 you are a communist, you have no brains. Venezuelans are young! The difference in campaign rhetoric matches the above dictum. Capriles is presenting a serious platform. Chavez is playing on sentiment.

Denny Schlesinger
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