No. of Recommendations: 8
IMO the BCC are a different type of timing indicator than e.g. Arezi or DM. The former are just technical trend-following, and the later are more macro based.

Arezi is very macro-based, and this is a new era of near-zero interest rates that is a different environment than when it was designed.
DM is a relative-momentum asset class chooser - arguably just technical trend following, based on 1-3-6-12m MAs.

the system I'm mentally trying...
My case to you would be, whether you use one at all or not depends on whether you're old enough to worry about preserving capital or you're still mainly accumulating. I wish I'd known about BCCs and dual momentum and moving-average-comparison approaches 11 years ago - I would have missed most of the 08-09 bear and be able to retire now. 18-20 years ago we wanted to believe "just follow the screens regardless of what the market is doing." Actuals since then have shown - in the MI screens world absolutely - how naive that was.

FWIW my "system" is the following: because I need to play Defense at this point in my life
- if at least two BCs are bullish
- invest equally in (or just leave alone) the top 6 Ivy GTAA asset classes that are also above
their 8m MAs
- if US small caps are above their 8m SMA
- use MI screens for about half of the smallcap allocation
- else
- get/stay out of MI screens
- else
- get/stay out of US equities; only stay in foreign if they're above 8M SMA (this is rare)

evaluated/rebalanced across classes at the end of the month but sometimes at the end of the week if inflection points are in play.

I will add small, short "bets" with leveraged funds at market extremes of bullishness or bearishness. The majority of the time I win, and sometimes I "learn".

FC
Print the post  

Announcements

When Life Gives You Lemons
We all have had hardships and made poor decisions. The important thing is how we respond and grow. Read the story of a Fool who started from nothing, and looks to gain everything.
Contact Us
Contact Customer Service and other Fool departments here.
Work for Fools?
Winner of the Washingtonian great places to work, and Glassdoor #1 Company to Work For 2015! Have access to all of TMF's online and email products for FREE, and be paid for your contributions to TMF! Click the link and start your Fool career.