Message Font: Serif | Sans-Serif
 
No. of Recommendations: 1
In hindsight we are all geniuses, but if I could do it over again, starting in mid-1999 (when I, unfortunately, first started having extra income to invest) I would:

Save money for 10 years, put it towards a house and take the rest and buy stocks (berkshire, aapl, amzn, nflx, googl...doesn't really matter which ones almost) in April 2009.

You literally could have just saved money for a decade.

Plan B with hindsight and a crystal ball would be:
Save money from 1999 until Oct 2001 then invest in anything and sell it all in 2007.
Wait 2 years, buy it all back.


Market timing, historical market conditions/crashes, and having cash on hand all do matter.
Unfortunately no one was really talking about that in 1999-2000.

-Dreamer


There are plenty feelings of regret - or the usual "what if I only had done this" - made by investors in retrospect. This could be regrets from individual stock(s), the use of margin, diversity or lack of diversity in a portfolio, not buying something when the market was down and out, not selling at highs to rebalance, and on and on. The recency bias will - or should - last for the remainder of our lifetimes with regard to choices made.

Time in the market vs. timing the market certainly remains a path to success for a well diversified portfolio (domestic/international/fixed income) covering all industry sectors, growth, value, market cap, plus continued investment and reinvestment of dividends. The technology sector's fall of 80%+ from 2000-2002 took care of excess, as did the overall 54%+ drop in the 2007-2009. They also color recency bias. Having a portfolio with a core diversity will be able to weather the storm over the decades of investing we all engage in, but the lessons of the past help point this out - especially in the case of having too much of one's portfolio in any particular sector such as technology in the dot.com bust, or financials in the financial crisis.

To continue our quarterly look at some of the big names in technology...

LifeForceDancer made the recent claim on February 3rd, 2018: This is the most overvalued stock market in history. Stocks around the world began their crash today. Crickets? Just when this board starts to make a noise is when the market will get squashed again.

I replied:

Your last post on this board was on March 16, 2008 entitled Warren Buffet Was Right where you said:

"To think that somehow the current environment is going to pan out differently in the long run is the height of foolishness. This board should be kept at the Fool indefinitely to remind us to stick to basic investing principles."

AMZN on that date closed at $66.53 ($1408 3/5/18)
INTC on that date closed at $35.52 ($46 3/5/18)
MSFT on that date closed at $22.15 ($90 3/5/18)
GOOGL on that date closed at $210.15 ($1103 3/5/18)
NVDA on that date closed at $16.56 ($228 3/5/18)
ORCL on that date closed at $17.36 ($49 3/5/18)
QCOM on that date closed at $30.83 ($65 3/5/18)
CRM on that date closed at $13.88 ($108 3/5/18)
AAPL on that date closed at $16.23 ($159 3/5/18)
NFLX on that date closed at $4.71 ($263 3/5/18)
FB, of course was not public then, but it closed at $38.23 on 5/18/13 ($188 3/5/18)

Of course, throw in the dividends for those above that pay dividends to get the total return to see how right or wrong Warren Buffett was with regard to technology investing for the leaders.

BRKB on that date closed at $84.90 ($205.50 3/5/18)


LifeForceDancer may or may not have been correct that on February 3rd, our stock market was the most overvalued stock market in history. So we all keep an eye on it.

Most are more than well aware of the tremendous growth taking place in software companies within the Cloud, but I won't highlight those players, but stick to the diverse collection of the big, well known players that dominate (includes the top 5 technology stocks in the S&P 500 + Netflix that when combined, these 6 companies have more free cash flow than the combined FCF of the bottom 250 stocks in the S&P 500 - yet they trade for the same multiple of price to FCF).

Updated prices for the morning of June 1, 2018.

AMZN on that date closed at $66.53 on 3/16/08 ($1408 3/5/18) 6/1/18 = $1637.14
INTC on that date closed at $35.52 on 3/16/08 ($46 3/5/18) 6/1/18 = $55.90
MSFT on that date closed at $22.15 on 3/16/08 ($90 3/5/18) 6/1/18 = $99.45
GOOGL on that date closed at $210.15 on 3/16/08 ($1103 3/5/18) 6/1/18 = $1115.13
NVDA on that date closed at $16.56 on 3/16/08 ($228 3/5/18) 6/1/18 = $254.09
ORCL on that date closed at $17.36 on 3/16/08 ($49 3/5/18) 6/1/18 = $46.99
QCOM on that date closed at $30.83 on 3/16/08 ($65 3/5/18) 6/1/18 = $58.23
CRM on that date closed at $13.88 on 3/16/08 ($108 3/5/18) 6/1/18 = $130.18
AAPL on that date closed at $16.23 on 3/16/08 ($159 3/5/18) 6/1/18 = $188.02
NFLX on that date closed at $4.71 on 3/16/08 ($263 3/5/18) 6/1/18 = $353.70
FB closed at $38.23 on 5/18/23 on 3/16/08 ($188 3/5/18) 6/1/18 = $192.63

BRKB on that date closed at $84.90 on 3/16/08 ($205.50 3/5/18) 6/1/18 = $193.37
Print the post  

Announcements

What was Your Dumbest Investment?
Share it with us -- and learn from others' stories of flubs.
When Life Gives You Lemons
We all have had hardships and made poor decisions. The important thing is how we respond and grow. Read the story of a Fool who started from nothing, and looks to gain everything.
Contact Us
Contact Customer Service and other Fool departments here.
Work for Fools?
Winner of the Washingtonian great places to work, and Glassdoor #1 Company to Work For 2015! Have access to all of TMF's online and email products for FREE, and be paid for your contributions to TMF! Click the link and start your Fool career.