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In my own case my very rough estimates are that I'll pay out >$2 (in pre-2000 dollars) for every dollar (in 2028 dollars) according to the current payout formula. After accounting for inflation the actual payout is much MUCH worse.GH has already mentioned this, but I am going to say it again: SS includes things like a disability insurance and a life insurance which pays to widows and orphans.Especially disability insurance is VERY costly if bought on the private market. It's been a while since I inquired about premiums (in Germany, in this case), but you should expect to pay over 10% in premiums of the insurance you expect to get in case you are rendered disabled. That is, a $1500 disability pension would likely cost in the neighborhood of $150-200 a month - if you can even get it, many people will not be able to get such a policy on the free market. Factor THAT into your calculation and I bet it will start to look a lot different indeed.
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