No. of Recommendations: 7
In the early parts of the paper it says:

"GTT spends roughly 87% of the time invested."

"GTT systematically does what any human trend-following market timer would have to do in order to be successful–distinguish between negative price trends that will give way to large downturns that support profitable exits and reentries, and negative price trends that will prove to be nothing more than short-term noise, head-fakes that quickly reverse, inflicting whipsaw losses on whoever tries to trade them. My reason for introducing the strategy is not so much to tout its efficacy, but to articulate that task as the primary task of trend-following, a task that every trend-follower should be laser-focused on, in the context of the current negative trend."

"GTT respects price and re-enters the market whenever the trend goes positive, no matter what the growth signals happen to be saying."




but later, in the implementation part of the paper ("An Improved Trend-Following Strategy: Growth-Trend Timing") it says:
"Growth-Trend Timing takes various combinations of high quality monthly coincident recession signals, and directs the moving average strategy to turn itself off during periods when those signals are unanimously disconfirming recession, i.e., periods where they are all confirming a positive fundamental economic backdrop."

"The purple bars at the bottom show periods where real retail sales growth is declaring “no recession.” In those periods, the strategy turns itself off. It stops timing altogether"

These are a MIS-STATEMENT.
The MA doesn't get turned off completely. It only gets turned off for the sell signal. The MA buy signal stays on.


What do you call it when you do something wrong according to the rules, but accidently do it right?
The way I coded it up was according to the early part. Good economy blocks the sell signal, and good SMA is a buy signal regardless of the economy signal.
Further confirmation that this is right and is what the paper meant is that it matches the 87% of the time being IN.


When I fixed it to be in in accordance to the later part, (completely turn off MA timing when the economic signals are all good), the return goes to pot. It's IN only 75% of the time (contra 87%) and the CAGR is only 7.9%.

**************
So, now that I know that I have coded in correctly....my conclusion still stands.
It is better to buy on the SMA signal alone, regardless of the economy growth signal.
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