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Indeed when prices are rising rapidly, people contract to buy spec homes on the theory they can sell at a profit when finished.

Of course the risk is the bubble will break and investors get stuck with expensive homes and mortgages they can't sell at a profit.

This seems to be a games of timing the market. Profitable if you do it right.

I suppose your back up is renting those new homes. The shortages must make for eager renters at least for now.
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That is what happened to me. I sold my house in NJ for near top of the market in '06. In '05, houses in my development got multiple offers at the open house and sold for over the asking price.

By end of summer, that was slowing down. So I hurried and put mine up for sale in '06. It sold right away. It was another year before things tanked. But I was delighted to get my asking price.

Buyer sold a dozen years later for a 10% loss and that after at least $30k in improvements.
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I have no idea what will happen this time but in Arizona the last time I can quote an exact example of what happened. House went from $320K in 2003 to a peak of ~$650K in 2007/8 to a bottom of $295K in late 2011, to $500K in 2019 to $650K in late 2020. Probably now over $700K. Just for a 3bed/2bath, 2K sq ft home in a nice neighborhood.

So anyone who bought near the peak in 2007/8 had to wait a good 12-13 years to break even. Many couldn't/didn't.

I'm currently homeless :) Since I will likely be retired during the next purchase, I'm not "limited" by a commute so that opens up things significantly. I've tried to be a 30 minute or less commuter in most of my life.

Recently people were buying homes, and then almost immediately relisting them to flip them for a quick profit. Once prices level off, those people will disappear and things will further calm down. No idea when.
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Indeed when prices are rising rapidly, people contract to buy spec homes on the theory they can sell at a profit when finished.

Of course the risk is the bubble will break and investors get stuck with expensive homes and mortgages they can't sell at a profit.

This seems to be a games of timing the market. Profitable if you do it right.

I suppose your back up is renting those new homes. The shortages must make for eager renters at least for now.
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