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No. of Recommendations: 7
...so, here we are. The 99D / DBE went bearish on the Naz Tuesday. It is going bearish on the Russell today, and is still 3 weeks away on large caps (S&P).

So the 99D / DBE is... bearish (effectively).
Aaand conveniently, the NH/NL is right now flipping back to bullish (if you use Zee's above -10 tweak).
One up, one down.
Pick up the bullish flag? Or keep holding the bearish flag?

but considering this is a -stock market-, and will -do whatever it wants to do next-, you gotta ask yourself one question.
Do I feel lucky?
Well? Do ya?


FC left out the "punk" ;-)

was there a backtest for that scenario?
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So the 99D / DBE is... bearish (effectively)

And DBE is the slow one, so in many ways drives the outcome to finally arrive at a full-on bear BCC signal.

For my money, still holding the bearish flag over here.
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No. of Recommendations: 6
In my book, the NAHL is still bearish based on EMA13. The 99 day DBE on the S&P will probably turn bearish in about a week.
I look at them independently. If NAHL turns bullish I'll add 10% to my stock allocation. If DBE turns bearish I'll reduce it by 20%. If both happen I'll end up with 10% less allocated to stocks than I do now.

Elan
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To answer the question, Yeah, I feel lucky :-)

The 200 day slope signal just went positive, so I checked lohill's GTR1 URL.
GTR1 signals only go to 1/24/19 and remained at signal 6. I don't know when new data arrives.

http://schrts.co/AZiHXFWU

Neither the 9 nor the 13 day $NAHL has gone positive at stockcharts, but $SPX is still below the 200 day sma.

The Nasdaq 100 Pnf bullish % indicator($BPNDX) says it's a bull market.

Maybe Elan's voting method is best, since we do something besides wait, but not too much to hurt if we're wrong.

Now that Trump caved on the shutdown, will the market's jump? Or will his supporters get a funk on? Wait and see. Patience, Grasshopper!

rrjjgg
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If both happen I'll end up with 10% less allocated to stocks than I do now.
Valid plan. My pile of signals adds up to a solid "Neutral".

Also, a very simple technical look at the S&P shows a pattern of lower highs has developed since end of September, and the recent bounce has topped right on the declining trendline through those highs. So the next couple of weeks are of heightened interest to technicians- a move higher through that trendline would be a bullish switch kind of sign, a drop from here would be continued negativity (until that trend were to be broken.) I don't delve deep into technicals.

Another signal I use is the 10/50DMA crossover. The S&P is within a kitten's whisker of tipping that one back over to bullish.
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My pile of signals adds up to a solid "Neutral"
Ditto! or perhaps mine can be characterized as a confused dithering.
Too many mixed signals I've been leaning more to safety. I went 70% to safety 10/10/18, became a
little more confident as of 1/14/19 risked a little more. Now only 45% safety but have little confidence
in any signals value in this mixed up economic environment.
I appreciate hearing others are having same problem.

RAM
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No. of Recommendations: 7
While reading this thread, I can't help but think that maybe it should be moved over to the "Emotional Investing" board instead :-)
--Tom
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While reading this thread, I can't help but think that maybe it should be moved over to the "Emotional Investing" board instead :-)
--Tom,

Sometimes the data doesn’t give an answer.

Cheers
Qazulight
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The 200 day slope signal just went positive, so I checked lohill's GTR1 URL.
GTR1 signals only go to 1/24/19 and remained at signal 6. I don't know when new data arrives.

http://schrts.co/AZiHXFWU


It went positive by 0.27 points for cripes sake. If you look at what the index was doing 200 days ago, you know you're due for a whipsaw.

Elan
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While reading this thread, I can't help but think that maybe it should be moved over to the "Emotional Investing" board instead :-)

I wish there were one, or an "Intuitive Investing" board, since that is what I have been doing the last middling while.
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Chuckle-worthy. I understand the jab, though. The practice of controlling one's emotions in driving investment decisions by relying on backtested signals and data, is definitely an exercise in psychology.

The simplistic "Follow the screens" and keep buying doesn't, and didn't, "work" in bear markets. Figuring out when and how to (and whether it's worth it) to get out to preserve capital, and when and how to get back in, is Level 2 of MI.
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Chuckle-worthy. I understand the jab, though. The practice of controlling one's emotions in driving investment decisions by relying on backtested signals and data, is definitely an exercise in psychology.

The simplistic "Follow the screens" and keep buying doesn't, and didn't, "work" in bear markets. Figuring out when and how to (and whether it's worth it) to get out to preserve capital, and when and how to get back in, is Level 2 of MI.



Comments by resident guru's suggest that "it also must make sense" which probably is more important as applies to "Timing" systems than "MI screening". We cannot(should not) rely entirely on "backtesting" for this it just isn't enough.

GD_
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Figuring out when and how to (and whether it's worth it) to get out to preserve capital, and when and how to get back in, is Level 2 of MI.

Yup. And that's really hard to do, as evidence the agonized discussions here about getting out NOW!! because of the downdrafts & volatility. It's as if people can accept the concept of unemotional backtests for selecting stocks, but have a hard time applying the concept to in/out decisions.

BTW and FWIW, the timing system I follow has said to be invested throughout this recent period. Glad I didn't get out in December, the S&P500 is up 6.3% since Jan 1.
Hasn't been fun, though.
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Yup. And that's really hard to do, as evidence the agonized discussions here about getting out NOW!! because of the downdrafts & volatility. It's as if people can accept the concept of unemotional backtests for selecting stocks, but have a hard time applying the concept to in/out decisions.

It's perfectly rational to be less certain about the timing signals than about stock selection from screens. I don't think it's a psychology issue.

With stock picking from screens you're making a highly diversified decision. If you invest, let's say, 5% of your portfolio in each stock, the individual stock picking decisions carry little risk. Also, stocks prices are highly correlated in the short run. So picking stock A vs. stock B, as a localized decision, has little impact on your total portfolio performance. And the stock screen backtests have many sample points.

Timing signals, and the way they are used by many people, are very different. If you're going to go all in or all out based on a single signal, the decision has a large potential impact on your portfolio. By definition, high impact means high risk, and people sense that intuitively. There's also the matter of a sparse sample size for many of the timing signals. So it's not at all surprising to me that people who use signals for an all-in/all-out decision, have serious misgivings. They are being rational.

Elan
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BTW and FWIW, the timing system I follow has said to be invested throughout this recent period. Glad I didn't get out in December, the S&P500 is up 6.3% since Jan 1.
Hasn't been fun, though.


Antonacci's GEM got out of stocks in December (using a 12 month lookback).
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Antonacci's GEM got out of stocks in December (using a 12 month lookback).

Yes indeed. Also when using a 7 month lookback. We use GEM in the grandkids' accounts.

But GEM isn't a timing system, it's a rotation system which has 3 options, one of which is non-stocks.

For pure timing, I use basically the GTT system. The key (and different) component of GTT is that it only allows a sell signal if the economy appears to be in a recession.
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Yes indeed. Also when using a 7 month lookback. We use GEM in the grandkids' accounts.

But GEM isn't a timing system, it's a rotation system which has 3 options, one of which is non-stocks.

For pure timing, I use basically the GTT system. The key (and different) component of GTT is that it only allows a sell signal if the economy appears to be in a recession.


Right. Thanks. I remember you'd written about GEM.
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Antonacci's GEM got out of stocks in December (using a 12 month lookback).

Thanks for highlighting that! at what point in December did they issue the out signal? Was it at the beginning of the month, avoiding most of the drawdown if people bailed completely? Or was it at the end, a week after the low had been hit?

This is perfectly an example of the risk of whipsaw and the imperfections - and risks an investor needs to accept - in using intermediate term signals / processes like these. To add to the complexity, "whether it worked" is only visible in hindsight.
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at what point in December did [GEM] issue the out signal?

From my automated signals,
The official GEM (52 week lookback):
11/04/18   VTI    
11/11/18 VTI
11/18/18 VTI
11/25/18 VTI
12/02/18 VTI
12/09/18 VTI
12/16/18 BND
12/23/18 BND
12/30/18 BND
1/06/19 BND
1/13/19 BND
1/20/19 BND
1/27/19 BND
2/03/19 BND


The 30 week (7 month) lookback):
11/04/18   VTI    
11/11/18 VTI
11/18/18 VTI
11/25/18 BND
12/02/18 VTI
12/09/18 BND
12/16/18 BND
12/23/18 BND
12/30/18 BND
1/06/19 BND
1/13/19 BND
1/20/19 BND
1/27/19 BND
2/03/19 BND
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Thanks for highlighting that! at what point in December did they issue the out signal?

My understanding of Antonacci's GEM is that it's a monthly signal, so I only look at month-end.
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My understanding of Antonacci's GEM is that it's a monthly signal, so I only look at month-end.

You can check the signal on any scedule you want. To me, monthly means once a month, not necessarily on the 1st of the month. You can evaluate the signal every week if you want. Since the signal doesn't change very often it doesn't hurt to check each week.

On some of my GEM accounts I check on the last Friday of the month, on others the 1st Friday, 2nd Friday, etc.
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Ray, thanks for the post.

Would you explain the signal date 2/03/19?
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