Skip to main content
Message Font: Serif | Sans-Serif
 
No. of Recommendations: 3
Date  Symbol  Price  ProiEPS  5yearGr  ProjVal%  OverUn  AAACORP  for yr
 03-Jan   intc   33.73    0.62   17.70   18.92   78.28%   6.3   Dec-2002
 17-Jan   intc   33.73    0.65   18.00   20.20   66.97%   6.3   Dec-2002

 17-Jan   intc   34.09    1.02   18.00   31.16   9.41%    6.41  Dec-2003
 18-Jan   intc   34.09    1.01   18.20   31.13   9.51%    6.41  Dec-2003

 TODAY    intc   33.81    1.01   18.20   31.13   8.61%    6.41  Dec-2003



P = ProjEPS * (8.5 + (2*G)) * (4.4/AAA yield)
is the Ben Graham formula used for this chart.


INTC was trading at $33.73 on Jan 3rd the projected 
next year eps was .62¢ the growth rate was 17.10% 
for the year ending 12/02 and showed an over value of 78% 
and a projected value of 18.92. At the time I did not have
the projected eps for year 03' which is the "Next year" now.
(I have keep pricing equal to show value changes vs. the 
effects of eps, growth and bond rates.)

How did the projected eps get to .65¢ and the growth 
to 18.20% based on this weeks reported earnings?

From yesterday to today, the projected eps dropped .01¢
and the result is a drop in the future value of the stock price.
Note in one days time the change in the 5-year growth 
rate actually increased to 18.2%. How?
(MSFT site caught up with the data?) 
Why did the projected earnings go up .03¢ cents for 2002 and
yet go down .01 for year 2003?

We must be very careful when looking at the numbers to
 see if the numbers are out 12 months or 24 months. 
Looking out two years based on the current numbers 
is painting a gloomy picture. Looking out only 12 months
 is scary. You really don't want to see what happens 
when you increase the 30-year AAA corporate rates. 

I did this for my own enjoyment. I needed to ask myself 
the questions. Just wanted to see how the reported numbers
influenced the estimates on the www sites and the perceived
future value vs. this morning pricing.  Included on the
last line are this mornings pricing to compare. 
It's down this morning. 

Dennis
Long INTC. Awaiting the Fools look at Intc's numbers.


Estimates from:
http://moneycentral.msn.com

Excel workbook can be found here:
http://briefcase.yahoo.com/bc/whoislordgraf/lst?.dir=/&.src=bc&.view=l

Print the post  

Announcements

What was Your Dumbest Investment?
Share it with us -- and learn from others' stories of flubs.
When Life Gives You Lemons
We all have had hardships and made poor decisions. The important thing is how we respond and grow. Read the story of a Fool who started from nothing, and looks to gain everything.
Contact Us
Contact Customer Service and other Fool departments here.
Work for Fools?
Winner of the Washingtonian great places to work, and Glassdoor #1 Company to Work For 2015! Have access to all of TMF's online and email products for FREE, and be paid for your contributions to TMF! Click the link and start your Fool career.