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Interestingly, Romney is leading in the polls but still way behind on Intrade (although the gap is contracting):

Madcap, if I told you that InTrade's market in the US presidential election is really small and someone could buy 10% of the current daily long-Obama volume *every day* for less than a million dollars a month (and that a similar chunk of the long-Romney market would be even cheaper), and that money spent in this fashion does not count as a campaign contribution or political expenditure, could you think of a few dozen entities that might be unscrupulous enough, rich enough, and interested enough to manipulate that market for the sake of its possible effects on the election?

Yeah, me too.

And everything I said about the InTrade market is correct.

Bids on a major earthquake happening before the end of the year cannot actually affect the likelihood of that event. I'll look at InTrade as possibly having predictive value on that... but not on the election.
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