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Intrade has only been around since 1999. So at most it has predicted 3 Presidential elections. That's like calling a rookie a hall of famer because he goes 3 for 3 in his first game.

Yes it has an accurate history, but it has a brief history. Not enough time for black swans to occur. Just remember, the intrade of the day said Dewey beat Truman.


I don't think people are just talking about prez can bet on all sorts of things there.....from sunspots numbers next year to when Iran may be attacked to box office grosses of movies. Supposedly it's accurate in all of this. I have no evidence myself that they are accurate, but that's what I hear.
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