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No. of Recommendations: 0
Does anyone here subscribe to any of The Fool's advisory services? Which? Satisfied?

CNC
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No. of Recommendations: 10
Does anyone here subscribe to any of The Fool's advisory services? Which? Satisfied? -- CNC

I'm a contractor for the Fool and that gives me access to everything here.

I recommend Stock Advisor to friends and family... and if they want more, I suggest Rule Breakers. Then I tell them that most of the recommendations of all the other services come from those first two services and that they can become independently wealthy with just those two. Over promising? Well, it worked for me, moving from near bankruptcy (failed home building business) in 1993 to an early retirement in 2010.

Based on a prior post or two I've made on this board, I doubt if very many folks would be interested in either one. There appears to be a preference for plodding results that are "safe". I've found over my 55 years of investing that solid long term growth is safer than the alternatives. Growth overcomes downturns, inflation and low interest or dividend rates.

Best of luck in whatever you decide.

Rob
Rule Breaker / Supernova Starshot Home Fool & STMP/MTH Maintenance Coverage Fool
He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain what he cannot lose.
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No. of Recommendations: 5
Does anyone here subscribe to any of The Fool's advisory services? Which? Satisfied?

Yes. SA and RB. Absolutely.

Back in 2009 I rolled my 401k into an IRA and for the first time I took control of my investing. I started out with their basic service, Stock Investor. Today I still subscribe to SA, but also to Rule Breakers. In between I sampled some other services, but those two are all I need today.

With the help of SA, RB, along with some contribution from other services I tried, along with the boards only open to subscribers, I have averaged about 20% per year growth in my portfolio. I made plenty of mistakes, bought plenty of recommendations that didn't perform as I (and TMF) hoped, but overall I could hardly be happier. I retired early, and while that 401k looked like a lot of money it was really only about 5 years of my annual gross pay before retirement. Fortunate circumstances allowed me to leave it untouched for eight or so years, just growing it. So I was able to "let my winners run"; I didn't sell because I had a double and was worried those profits might go away. So today my portfolio is worth over 30 years of that pre-retirement pay, despite withdrawals of over 3.5 years worth.

Some key points that made that possible.

Patience. I wasn't instantly turned into a buy-and-hold investor, but SA gave me a head start in that direction, and my largest positions - AMZN, NFLX, AAPL - date back to the first year I was investing. AMZN and NFLX alone have blown everything else away. What someone starting today needs to do is find today's companies that will perform like they have. SA and RB would be great places to start.

Patience. I have had 91 months that were positive, and 43 months where I lost money. In one three month stretch (Oct-Dec 2018) I watched the value of my portfolio drop by 20%. I made no special moves, I sat tight. I didn't panic, I didn't sell.

Luck. It would be dishonest of I didn't mention that I have been lucky. The period since then has spanned the most amazing bull market in history. My timing, through pure chance, was perfect. But TMF helped me make the best of the opportunity.

The boards, especially the boards only open to paying customers. Picking a number out of the air, I'm guessing 80% of what I have learned from TMF is from the boards. There is an extraordinary depth to the investing advice shared among the board participants.

I must add one additional factor in my more recent success that can not be ignored. On the public side of TMF I started following Saul's investing board. It took me years of casually looking at what was being said there before I started following it more seriously, and taking some of the advice. TMF, and SA/RB in particular, hold your hands pretty well and show you the ropes. Saul's board is really more advanced than I am ready for, even with eleven years of investing. It is not a place to casually get a tip, or engage in small talk. That board is hard core. So far, for me, it is hard core that works. It isn't a place for novices, and comes pretty close to not being a place for me, but I sure am glad I have been following along. I strongly suggest anyone going there start by reading up on the Knowledgebase provided there, and then follow the boards for at least a few months before posting. If you haven't got something substantial to contribute, keep quiet.

Anyway, you asked.
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No. of Recommendations: 1
Based on a prior post or two I've made on this board, I doubt if very many folks would be interested in either one. There appears to be a preference for plodding results that are "safe". I've found over my 55 years of investing that solid long term growth is safer than the alternatives. Growth overcomes downturns, inflation and low interest or dividend rates.

What I failed to mention in my reply was that I have never owned bonds in any form, and only used mutual funds until I had a year or so to steadily move into individual stocks.

And I missed stating one of my keys: I don't invest in "the market", I invest in companies. So I don't pay much attention to what "the market" is doing, but I surely do pay attention to the companies I own, or am thinking of owning.
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No. of Recommendations: 13
On the public side of TMF I started following Saul's investing board.

I tried Saul's board and after about two weeks I deleted it. Way, way, way above my head. The moderator or Saul or whoever thinks his sh*t doesn't stink. I was afraid to ask a question because they would want me to go somewhere else to find the answer.

But the main reason I deleted it was they didn't put up with any cr*p. You had to be serious and as concerned as humanly possible. No joking around and no 'stupid' questions.

Some of the stuff they talked about I had no idea of what they were talking about and some of the threads would just be posted overnight an "IMMEDIATELY" they had 283 recs. What's that all about?

Another thing is some of the stocks they talked about .... where did they come up with them? Never heard of them.

Way too serious for me. There are other things in life than making money.

Loosen up.

Regards,

ImAGolfer
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No. of Recommendations: 3
"Does anyone here subscribe to any of The Fool's advisory services? Which? Satisfied?

CNC"

**************************************************************************************

TMF at one time said everyone was capable of investing on their own ---- and also
recommended indexing. Those days are gone.

Personally, I have used several investing approaches - all have worked to a degree.

Howie52
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No. of Recommendations: 16
Way, way, way above my head. The moderator or Saul or whoever thinks his sh*t doesn't stink. I was afraid to ask a question because they would want me to go somewhere else to find the answer.

But the main reason I deleted it was they didn't put up with any cr*p. You had to be serious and as concerned as humanly possible. No joking around and no 'stupid' questions.

Some of the stuff they talked about I had no idea of what they were talking about and some of the threads would just be posted overnight an "IMMEDIATELY" they had 283 recs. What's that all about?

Another thing is some of the stocks they talked about .... where did they come up with them? Never heard of them.
-- ImAGolfer

I don't see the arrogance you mention. But there is little tolerance for "chatting". Discussions need to mostly stay on topic and the topics are mostly (with exceptions) finding rapidly growing companies that look to dominate their field.

'Stupid' questions are not really stupid of course, but folks are expected to read the KnowledgeBase to avoid ongoing (and tedious) responses to common questions. Saves everyone a lot of time to focus on the purpose of the board. If anyone is interested, read these three posts of Saul's.... it may shock you in terms of the mental perspective. :)

How I (Saul) Invest: https://boards.fool.com/how-i-invest-34623224.aspx?sort=user...
Rules of the Board: https://boards.fool.com/monday-morning-rules-of-the-board-34...
September Summary: https://boards.fool.com/how-i-invest-34623224.aspx?sort=user...

Never heard of those companies on Saul's board? Probably because you're not looking for "rapidly growing companies that look to dominate their field". You're probably searching for elephants in places that only have lesser animals. (Or maybe you're more comfortable avoiding elephants). These elephants probably won't be the next Amazon, but some of them are likely to be the next Netflix in terms of domination of their field and shareholder reward. Although I'd be surprised if you never heard of Zoom (ZM).

I encourage folks to check it out! But if you're not interested, that's fine.....

Rob
Rule Breaker / Supernova Starshot Home Fool & STMP/MTH Maintenance Coverage Fool
He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain what he cannot lose.
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No. of Recommendations: 2
Does anyone here subscribe to any of The Fool's advisory services?

Not me.
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No. of Recommendations: 4
Saul's board absolutely isn't for everyone.

There are other things in life than making money.

Absolutely true. Many of them are a lot easier if you have money. 8-)

In January I updated my ROTH portfolio, a small fraction of my total, to align with Saul's month end allocation. I more or less keep up with any major shifts he makes, though much later than Saul. That account has returned 117.9% YTD as of market close today. It is not for the weak-hearted; there was a point when it was down 25%, and two other drops were nerve wracking (from up 104% YTD down to 64%, and from up 121% to up 89%).
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No. of Recommendations: 1
It should be strongly noted that Saul's approach is not at all "buy and hold". It requires active management and attention. So it's totally unsuited to typical retirement investing.

Stay far away unless you love investing and want to spend significant time at it.

-IGU-
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No. of Recommendations: 0
Good comments, RH & IGU. Thanks.

Rob
Rule Breaker / Supernova Starshot Home Fool & STMP/MTH Maintenance Coverage Fool
He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain what he cannot lose.
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No. of Recommendations: 2
I love hearing people stand up for Saul and his methods.

I am perhaps the most admonished Saul frequenter on his board.

But Saul can do no wrong in my eyes. These days I walk on eggs around him. I have made "dream come true" profits thanks to Saul and other greats he attracts. And . . . I don't know jack about stock investing!

Even Saul is a big fan of David Gardner and his stock "heads up"s on SA and RB.

We are lucky to have Saul and his generosity.

MoneySlob
----------
“to play golf is to spoil an otherwise enjoyable walk”
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No. of Recommendations: 4
Ok, here is a better formatted reply. I don't know what happened.
("slob"?)

I love hearing people stand up for Saul and his methods.

I am perhaps the most admonished Saul frequenter on his board.

But Saul can do no wrong in my eyes. These days I walk on eggs around him. I have made "dream come true" profits thanks to Saul and other greats he attracts. And . . . I don't know jack about stock investing!

Even Saul is a big fan of David Gardner and his stock "heads up"s on SA and RB.

We are lucky to have Saul and his generosity.

MoneySlob
----------
“to play golf is to spoil an otherwise enjoyable walk”
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No. of Recommendations: 15
I don't see the arrogance you mention.

Seriously? It virtually drips from that board. The few top posters know they are the top (like a clique of popular girls in high school), and constantly brag about their results. I asked a serious question (actually a few), and all I got from Saul was "I've made 300% this year!". Which didn't answer the question. I can deal with no chit-chat, but they go way beyond that.

I mostly read now. Frankly, I'm taking advantage of other people's research and ideas. I own two of the stocks they favor right now. But asking questions or trying to contribute? Yeah, good luck. You'll be slapped down with "I made 300% this year!".

I won't argue that they are on top of some good stocks, which is why I continue to read. But trying to break into that clique is pointless, and the smug arrogance you could cut with a knife. If the results they quote are true they are entitled to some arrogance, but to say it isn't there is just silly.
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No. of Recommendations: 0
We are lucky to have Saul and his generosity.

We are fortunate to have a few posters who do deep-dives into different stocks. That board is good for reading. Just read. Read the board rules, the philosophy, etc (i.e. the Knowledge Base), and the deep-dives. Don't bother asking questions most of the time, nor inputting your opinion. Neither will be well-received, even if you adhere tightly to the board's rules.
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No. of Recommendations: 4
It's a big world.
A huge puzzle that all sorts of weird shaped pieces fit together if you don't force them.
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No. of Recommendations: 6
1poorguy wrote:
Read the board rules, the philosophy, etc (i.e. the Knowledge Base), and the deep-dives. Don't bother asking questions most of the time, nor inputting your opinion. Neither will be well-received, even if you adhere tightly to the board's rules.

You've read these things and you still don't understand? Well, let me explain things more simply.

If you post there, you are expected to post contributions. Contributions are serious analyses of stocks in the manner they care about (growth of the company is what matters). Questions are not welcome if they aren't on topic. Questioning their assumptions is pointless. Asking irrelevant questions without contributing is considered obnoxious. If you are a recognized contributor, they cut you some slack.

So, yeah, I've seen you post there a bunch of times and I don't remember a single one being of any value to them. You don't do serious in-depth analyses of growth companies, so there's no point in you posting. As you say, "that board is good for reading".

I won't post there again. Several months ago I pointed out that Zoom (a current favorite) had been a bad actor insofar as security was concerned, referenced multiple heavyweights in the field, and linking some authoritative articles. I also said that I didn't think it would affect the stock price either way, but that it was important to understanding the company. Saul responded with some long impassioned utter BS about hit pieces and short sellers and whatnot. He couldn't have been more wrong. But he doesn't need to be right about anything other than what companies to invest in, and there he seems to be golden. So I read some of their stuff but I don't post.

-IGU-
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No. of Recommendations: 12
I won't post there again. Several months ago I pointed out that Zoom (a current favorite) had been a bad actor insofar as security was concerned, referenced multiple heavyweights in the field, and linking some authoritative articles. I also said that I didn't think it would affect the stock price either way, but that it was important to understanding the company. Saul responded with some long impassioned utter BS about hit pieces and short sellers and whatnot. He couldn't have been more wrong. But he doesn't need to be right about anything other than what companies to invest in, and there he seems to be golden. So I read some of their stuff but I don't post.

Could it be that you were wrong?

Zoom is following the path of blitzscaling and really doesn't care if they get it wrong because they are growing very fast and will fix it along the way, which they have done. Those companies are all about getting up to scale very fast so they can catch marketshare and do not care about making mistakes along the way. Zoom is follow that path very well and at first I didn't get it either but after reading about Blitzscaling it made a lot of sense.

When Saul first started his board he could be more easy going and lenient. But now there are thousands of people on the board and if everyone asks how to manage their portfolio you can never get down to the real substantial discussions. It is really amazing what Saul has done and it all has been for free, no money asked. Not many people would be that willing to share.

Andy
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No. of Recommendations: 6
I don't see the arrogance you mention.

Seriously? It virtually drips from that board. The few top posters know they are the top (like a clique of popular girls in high school), and constantly brag about their results. I asked a serious question (actually a few), and all I got from Saul was "I've made 300% this year!". Which didn't answer the question. I can deal with no chit-chat, but they go way beyond that.
-- 1poorguy

Yes, seriously.

Brag? It could be perceived as such, just as yours could be perceived as jealousy. Many instances of where people make such a comment about returns is accompanied by details of how they did it. I use that info to consider whether I want to adjust my own portfolio to make improvements.... which, of course, is pretty much foundational for the Fool boards.

I'll take a peek over at Saul's board for your posts and see if I can find confirmation of your "I've made 300% this year" being Saul's only response to a question of yours. I suspect you've embellished the story because that would be a ridiculous response. I'll get back....

Rob
Rule Breaker / Supernova Starshot Home Fool & STMP/MTH Maintenance Coverage Fool
He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain what he cannot lose.
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No. of Recommendations: 0
@IGU
I *think* I remember your post and I remember thinking, "wow, that is old hat. It has been addressed and processed quite some time ago by all parties including Zoom themselves."
I also think you mentioned Zoom servers in China and I thought the same thing.

But, I will always read what you have to say.

Cheers
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No. of Recommendations: 0
Brag?

Yes, brag. In BOLD font. All the time. Not in the deep-dive posts. I find those to be the most useful. But when you answer a question about a company or industry with I've made 300% this year, as if it was somehow an affront to ask a question, that is bragging.

Not jealous at all, and I don't think I could be perceived as such, either. I've stated all over TMF (for many years) that I make my own decisions, and take responsibility for them. I've also stated many times all over TMF that I don't begrudge anyone their success.

Disclaimer: I don't have the precise number handy, but Saul did answer one of my questions by quoting his returns. It almost certainly wasn't exactly "300%" (unless I got a really good guess), but that isn't the point. I then called him out on his non-answer, and it never really went further. I think another poster posted their opinion/answer, which is fine. Saul just quoted his returns.

Like I said, probably best to just read the board for ideas and look at the numbers, and then do your own diligence regarding whether your comfortable with the company and its business. To his credit, Saul does say you shouldn't just do what he does. You should do your due diligence. But he then doesn't foster an environment for discussion most of the time. Apparently a lot of people just read, based on emails I received saying "don't even try to engage with them".
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No. of Recommendations: 12
I love Saul's enthusiasm. Brag all you want Saul, you deserve to.

What really matters is YTD bottom lines. And Saul, PaulWBryant, GauchoChris, and others share their bottom lines and reasons monthly. Priceless. Anyone that has a problem with that, in whatever form it is presented, can call the Waaaabulance.

Saul has his own way of doing things which is fine . . . . wait for it . . . BECAUSE IT IS HIS FORUM. . . Me? I am crying all the way to the bank.
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No. of Recommendations: 0
Waaambulance, sorry, I missed the "m".
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No. of Recommendations: 4
I'm baaaaack....... ;)

I did a quick search.... and quickly realized a couple things:

1) I wasn't going to study the discussions related to all 77 of 1poorguy's posts on Saul's board because I value my time more than that.

2) Of the sampling I did (links below) nobody jumped on 1poorguy. I just saw a discussion. Lest you think that somehow 1poorguy is always abused there, one of his posts had 84 recs. Yeah, poor guy. ;)

A thread with multiple 1poorguy posts, one of which had 84 recs, some disagreement
https://boards.fool.com/crowdstrike-vs-symantec-34554564.asp...

Comment “bordering on OT per the rules” per 1poorguy, no negative replies, 6 recs
https://boards.fool.com/actually-as-others-have-also-posted-...

Comment, no negative replies, 3 recs
https://boards.fool.com/i-generally-agree-and-have-said-so-o...

Comment, no negative replies, 2 recs
https://boards.fool.com/quotefficientquot-can-mean-several-t...

*****
I would welcome a link from you, 1poorguy, that shows the response you allege Saul made.

Rob
Rule Breaker / Supernova Starshot Home Fool & STMP/MTH Maintenance Coverage Fool
He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain what he cannot lose.
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No. of Recommendations: 1
Could it be that you were wrong?

Wrong in what way? I said nothing about whether anybody should put money in ZM. In fact you'll see I bent over backwards to say that lack of security and management taking no responsibility might make ZM an even better investment.

This was where I participated in the original discussion about Zoom security in the summer of 2019:
https://boards.fool.com/zoom-mac-client-vulnerability-342462...

And this thread is what got Saul peeved when I questioned Zoom's management's integrity in March, 2020:
https://boards.fool.com/zoom-privacy-what-privacy-34456507.a...

Me: "Again, while this sort of thing indicates insufficient management integrity for me to invest in the company, it doesn't mean that they won't be wildly successful. People should do what they are comfortable with."

Here's my "I'm done" post on March 31, 2020:
https://boards.fool.com/hey-saul-it-rather-astounds-me-that-...
You'll notice it got 128 recs, and Saul's post at the top of the thread got far fewer, so it's not as though it's a single bloc with one opinion.

Anyway, no I wasn't wrong about anything. I have a long history of working on and investing in computer security over the years. I long ago came to the conclusion that nobody will pay a penny for security if it is inconvenient in the slightest. So, I suspect that Zoom has been right to treat the security questions cavalierly. What I don't like is their lying about it. And I think that Saul's blindness and defensiveness are uncalled for. But, as I said, he's a great stock picker, and that's what everybody admires him for.

Note that Saul, as recently as July in his monthly portfolio report (https://boards.fool.com/my-portfolio-at-the-end-of-july-2020...) says:
I think that we have enough distance now that we can look back at what happened with the troll and short attack that hit Zoom in mid March. We are four months away, and Zoom is up over $140 per share, over 120% (more than doubled) in three months, from when those guys were trying to scare you out. Those guys, for the most part, had never posted on our board before, had rarely if ever posted on the MF anywhere before, and then suddely show up to say very earnestly, over and over again, how they are SOOOO concerned because you can’t trust the “integrity” (I remember that that was the word they used), of Zoom’s CEO. Several of them kept using the same word, “integrity,” as if it was in a script that they had been directed to use.

He goes on and on (read it! that's only the first third). It's a screed that bears no semblance to anything that actually happened. Pretty weird. On the other hand, Saul's monthly portfolio reports are a must read for serious growth investors. Just brilliant stuff, way out of my league. Go figure!

Me, I've since held my nose and put money in ZM. Made a pile on it too. Go, Saul! But I'm done trying to contribute there in any way.

-IGU-
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No. of Recommendations: 1
I would welcome a link ... that shows the response ... Saul made.

Rob, I am pretty sure it was this one. 238% vs 300%, isn't particularly far off.

https://boards.fool.com/crwd-is-the-first-company-featured-h...

Which was in response to:

https://boards.fool.com/thanks-for-posting-this-crwd-is-the-...

It sounded to me as though Saul was reacting not to one message, but to a cumulative skepticism expressed over a range of earlier messages.
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I don't know Saul but more than a few doctors (my understanding is that was his background) have attitudes/arrogance, just ask nurses.

And also it isn't his forum but The Motley Fool's.

But I don't have any major issue with what he does. There is an attitude but so far he has been right more than wrong. Since I can have an attitude I don't mind people like that, up to a point.

I think anyone can start a board hosted at TMF and do whatever (within some limits).
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No. of Recommendations: 0
Question: how best does one use Saul's board? I've been there before, I believe asking about marijuana companies, and was told no, so I definitely get the no-nonsense approach (I do agree, the no-nonsense thing is a bit silly sometimes, and I'm puzzled at how the board can ban people, etc., thought the Fool made those decisions, but that's okay). However, as I happened upon this thread, I would like to use Saul's board to my best advantage. Hard to figure out how to do that, though.

Is the board mostly supposed to be a collection of discussions about stock ideas and then it is up to the person to suss out an allocation, or, are there posts by Saul saying "I just bought these stocks"? I will read the rules/etc., but I find asking questions like this before finding the answers on my own is helpful.

From what I've read here, I doubt Saul has answered these questions, but does he subscribe to services that aid in his decision process, or is this totally just his own work? Nothing wrong if he subscribes to services that may help him (I don't mean recommendation services, or Fool services, I mean tools that give him information). And what is his lifetime performance?

I guess what I'm looking for is the quickest way to replicate his performance, so if there are certain days he posts his new stock ideas that he's buying, I would love to know that. Thanks in advance (I have placed the board in my favorite folder). Sounds like a great resource. I still, however, am happy with my Rule Breakers subscription and find the Fool itself very valuable in picking stocks for myself. I think a diversity of services can be warranted.
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No. of Recommendations: 3
It sounded to me as though Saul was reacting not to one message, but to a cumulative skepticism expressed over a range of earlier messages. -- RH

Exactly.

And Saul pointed out apparent discrepancies between 1poorguy's assertion of "no moat" and the performances of companies.

Hardly as 1poorguy described.

I've read a lot of 1poorguy's posts over time. He typically has good stuff to say. I think his recent posts here reflect some other issue, not Saul's response.

Rob
Rule Breaker / Supernova Starshot Home Fool & STMP/MTH Maintenance Coverage Fool
He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain what he cannot lose.
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No. of Recommendations: 0
From what I've read here, I doubt Saul has answered these questions, but does he subscribe to services that aid in his decision process, or is this totally just his own work? Nothing wrong if he subscribes to services that may help him (I don't mean recommendation services, or Fool services, I mean tools that give him information). And what is his lifetime performance? -- esxokm

Just some of it is totally his work on the board, IMO. It's a community effort.

He subscribes to Ticker Target and has advocated it as a good thing for others to subscribe to as well. I now subscriber as well.

He's mentioned his lifetime performance. It's amazingly high. Perhaps someone would choose to not believe it, but I don't think it makes a bit of difference. The point is: How is he doing now AND what is his rationale for what he does.

He excels at both.

He frequently changes his mind and admits when he makes mistakes.

I guess what I'm looking for is the quickest way to replicate his performance, so if there are certain days he posts his new stock ideas that he's buying, I would love to know that.

He STRONGLY DISCOURAGES that idea. Read his rationale and the rationale of others..... decide for yourself. But, as you say, read the rules of the board first. As for "special days", he talks throughout the month but has always posted a monthly summary near the end of the month. His recent summaries have been less useful because he's recovering from an injury.

Rob
Rule Breaker / Supernova Starshot Home Fool & STMP/MTH Maintenance Coverage Fool
He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain what he cannot lose.
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From what I've read here, I doubt Saul has answered these questions, but does he subscribe to services that aid in his decision process, or is this totally just his own work? Nothing wrong if he subscribes to services that may help him (I don't mean recommendation services, or Fool services, I mean tools that give him information). And what is his lifetime performance?

I guess what I'm looking for is the quickest way to replicate his performance, so if there are certain days he posts his new stock ideas that he's buying, I would love to know that. Thanks in advance (I have placed the board in my favorite folder).


Hmmm. Saul has said recently he subscribes to Stock Advisor, Rule Breakers, TickerTarget(Bert Hotchfield(sic?), and he might be subscribed to Seeking Alpha and Beth Kindig.

He posted once that people asked him where he gets his ideas. He replied, "why, you guys! I take everything in when someone makes a deep dive and I go study the company myself."
He is capable of giving praise where praise is due and will thank someone for changing his mind about a stock.

Although he occasionally will pipe up during the month about a major purchase or sale he has just done, the main post we all look for is his end of the month post, which is pure gold and a blessing. My normal 6-8 rating for my day jumps up to a 10 when Saul posts. PaulWBryant and GouchoChris do the same thing and are worth looking out for or scrolling back to find. Also, really good stuff is the discussions between these guys about the numbers and finances of a specific stock. Saul attracts some truly brilliant people.

I love all the newcomers that show up and stroke their beards and ponder and review and cannot believe this is to good to be true. Haha. I and all my friends have been there done that. You have been assimilated!
We must enjoy this gift while we can.

I am off to look at Pelaton stock. GauchoChris just posted his Aug-Sept portfolio and couldn't stop raving about Pelaton's numbers.

Take care
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guess what I'm looking for is the quickest way to replicate his performance, so if there are certain days he posts his new stock ideas that he's buying, I would love to know that.


Oh I forgot. You need to read his knowlegebase articles which are attached to his forum. And yes, it is his forum and MF lets him host it. He could cancel it tomorrow if he wanted.

In 2018 I remember Saul saying that he had averaged 33% over the last 16 years. I believe that average will be higher now.
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No. of Recommendations: 3
Saul has said recently he subscribes to Stock Advisor, Rule Breakers -- MS

I missed that.

That's nice he does, instead of just utilizing/mooching his free board.

Rob
Rule Breaker / Supernova Starshot Home Fool & STMP/MTH Maintenance Coverage Fool
He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain what he cannot lose.
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I've got everything in the Foolish Four, and I figure it's got to start working someday.
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Saul doesn’t just subscribe to SA and RB, he has said they are bargains and any investor following his approach is crazy not to subscribe too. The same with Bert’s newsletter.
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I've got everything in the Foolish Four, and I figure it's got to start working someday.

I'm using the Boring Portfolio, Rule Makers and Hidden Gems Paydirt.

PSU
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"I am off to look at Pelaton stock. GauchoChris just posted his Aug-Sept portfolio and couldn't stop raving about Pelaton's numbers."

But once the pandemic ends, and folks return to the gym, will Peloton's numbers be so good? Mostly good now because of people trapped at home....but in the future?

Probably like a lot of Bowflex gym sets that will be on the market in a year or so.......or already are....

t.
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Yeah, it's his board. And he can brag all he likes, but don't tell me (like TMFRob tried to do) that he doesn't brag. He does. Vociferously. But you missed the point. He answers questions (at least from the people NOT in his inner circle) by quoting his returns. That is a non-answer, almost always.

You'll notice (or maybe you haven't?) that I don't contribute a single comment now. For several weeks. I just read. A lot of free info, usually nicely summarized by people that seem to know what they're doing. I can just leach off that and give nothing back. It's not my style, but I can do it. And I am.

1poorguy (long DDOG and CRWD, from that board)
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But once the pandemic ends, and folks return to the gym, will Peloton's numbers be so good? Mostly good now because of people trapped at home....but in the future?

Actually Peloton has a monthly subscription income stream from the bikes and from other workouts they offer. Anecdotally, people have realized they don't need to pay a gym so I wouldn't count on a big return to them along with bankruptcies of some of them.

The recent price bump for the stock IMHO had to do with the lowering of the entry price point for the bike. I bought a Concept2 BikeErg from my son who had gotten it at the beginning of March right after which I could get one. He just bought a Peloton bike because of the lower price point. (He likes Peloton; I tried one in hotel and didn't) We also live somewhere that it's not that tough to bike much of the year and I have a quiver of bikes.

I have already bought and sold the stock - made about 10% in 10 days and never planned to hold it long term.
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84 recs? Cool. I don't track recs, so had no idea.

And, to be clear, I never said I was jumped on. Several posters respond in a civil and helpful manner.

However, it turns out the 84 rec reply was to the message that Saul didn't really answer the question. So apparently 84 people agreed with me. I asked about moats, he said (paraphrasing) moat, shmoat, I got 239% returns (not 300%, though I was close!). He didn't really answer my question. Though others actually engaged on that question.

https://boards.fool.com/crwd-is-the-first-company-featured-h...

It is his board, and he can do what he likes. I'm probably not going to comment much on that board, just suck-up the free information. I won't say "never", because it's possible something will compel me to speak-up. But I haven't posted for several weeks. If I come across a company that I think fits their criteria I'll probably post an analysis, but that seems unlikely given that those folks will probably have covered any company I could find before I find it. They are good. But, IMO, it's best to just read that board.
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He didn't really answer my question.

Here is what I got out of Saul's response. It was not stated in these words, but I think it boils down to this:

When the criteria you consider important (moats) does not agree with the results (+238%) the problem is with the criteria.

I rarely speak up there too. I just don't know enough to contribute anything worthwhile. So I read, and learn, (and profit!). In return the best I can do is give recs when I think they are appropriate, and try to make others at least a bit aware of what a phenomenon is available to those who can handle the volatility.
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For a few minutes there, I thought I had landed on Saul's Investing Discussions message board...
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For a few minutes there, I thought I had landed on Saul's Investing Discussions message board...


No, you landed in a place that gave folks some room to wiggle and release their frustrations and also testify on the effectiveness of Saul's money making discussions even if you just shut up and listen. Which is pretty much what I do.

Did I tell you how I beat Saul's YTD in 2019 thanks to Saul's forum and the great people he attracts?
That is another story for another bedtime.

Gotta do my 2x20 burpees before breakfast now. Cheaper than a Pelaton and is a full body HIIT that covers 2 of the major 3 muscle groups (probably will go out and lift flower pots for 3rd group. . . )

Respectfully,
MoSlo
-----------
90% YTD 76% cash
Thank you Saul
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I've got everything in the Foolish Four ...

Wow, you too !!!

That's exactly why I came to TMF in the first place.

culcha
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90% YTD 76% cash

Am I understand this correctly? You have 24% invested providing a 90% return. Why would you be keeping 76% on the sidelines with the elevated returns?

PSU
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You have 24% invested providing a 90% return.

That's incredibly impressive. Saul is, except for a little spending money, 100% invested and you beat him with just 24% of your honey pot. Wow!

Pete
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MondySlob writes:

No, you landed in a place that gave folks some room to wiggle and release their frustrations and also testify on the effectiveness of Saul's money making discussions even if you just shut up and listen. Which is pretty much what I do.

Did I tell you how I beat Saul's YTD in 2019 thanks to Saul's forum and the great people he attracts?
That is another story for another bedtime.

Gotta do my 2x20 burpees before breakfast now. Cheaper than a Pelaton and is a full body HIIT that covers 2 of the major 3 muscle groups (probably will go out and lift flower pots for 3rd group. . . )

Respectfully,
MoSlo
-----------
90% YTD 76% cash
Thank you Saul


Well, as an avid cyclist - at least I know how to spell Peloton. ;-)

BB
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Saul does NOT BRAG. He states exactly what he does, why he does and how he does it. If I had 200% returns(in a year like we have had) I would brag my head off. Sob, I only have 168% until yesterday. Wait it gets better, I just looked up whats going on today. Tsla, up.(brag) Amzn up(brag) Msft up(brag) Zm up(again,brag,brag,brag)Ddog up(brag)Net up(brag) Docu up(brag)Fsly up(brag)Crwd up(brag)Enph up(brag brag brag)Shop, TTD, CVNA, up, up and away, bragged out.Even Apple up a touch(little brag) However, as he once mentioned, look at your portfolio over a long period of time or even the last 4 years and then its really time to brag.

All I can say in Saul's total support, he was the one who cottoned on to SaaS very early on, net retention rates, etc. May he and I brag to our hearts content, all the way to the bank. Tomorrow though is always another day but long may his health and his board continue. I owe a lot of my success mainly down to him.

Best Brag. Sorry Bran.
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No. of Recommendations: 14
Saul does NOT BRAG. He states exactly what he does, why he does and how he does it.

Not only does he not brag -- he often expresses surprise and amazement that his investments have had the great yield that they have had. "This just can't continue" (or words to that effect), he often says during his monthly reports.

The board is indeed very focused. He doesn't want to allow discussion of options, portfolio management, investor psychology, formulaic valuation metrics (such as P/E), etc. etc.

He himself seems to be very focused, very no-nonsense, and very successful in his investing. He's also very willing to share all his investing knowledge for free. In a way, he is the best of what TMF used to be: investors helping investors. Unlike the Gardner Bros., he's not selling anything.

culcha
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So I read, and learn, (and profit!). In return the best I can do is give recs when I think they are appropriate,...

Yeah, me too. Just recced a couple of posts this morning, in fact.

But I don't think the criteria is the problem here. Consider Zoom (ZM). We had WebEx, the Apple product (FaceTime?), and a handful of others. Microsoft released Teams (which my company uses, as well as WebEx). But there was no moat around any of those, so Zoom came out of nowhere and is now eating their lunch because they -apparently- did it better. Because there is no moat, what's to say someone else won't come along and do it even better? With no barrier to entry, it is much more likely than if there were barriers.

So I don't think there is anything wrong with the criteria. One should at least be aware of the moats, or lack of moats, when investing. There may be good reasons to ignore them in some situations, but one should (IMHO) be aware when investing. Giving the answer "I'm up 238%" in no way addresses the question, except to imply he's ignoring the moats (or lack thereof), but he never really gave a coherent reason why.

(no position in any stock mentioned here)
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90% YTD 76% cash

Am I understand this correctly? You have 24% invested providing a 90% return. Why would you be keeping 76% on the sidelines with the elevated returns?

PSU


Thanks for pointing that out.

Let's see. In July I went to all cash at 86% YTD. 3 reasons:
1--why get greedy?
2--Looking at my Charles Schwab 2 year performance there were 5 major bone jarring dips.
3--Covid and elections and many sources expressed extreme volatility. Saul even said that he was keeping the number of tickers to a minimum, only maintaining his highest convictions.

So, being all the way out and feeling lonely I crept in and out for the last 2 months using 15%-25% of my cash. Slowly, my YTD climbed to 90% today.
Looks great but it might have doubled if I had stayed in 100% like Saul et al did.
One other thing happened in 2019 which made me grateful just to stop at a measly 86% YTD (yeah I know, very liberal use of the word "measly"):
At the end of July 2019 I was up 102% YTD (read: "one hundred and two") and I decided to stay in > sector rotation > ending in 60% YTD. So, I just made a promise to myself, "what number would I halt my YTD at?".
(The gains for 2019 by the way beat Saul for that year and were totally a result of ENPH and a guy, putnid, who posted his gains were 150% due to ENPH on Saul's forum. I credit this to Saul and the people he attracts.)

Let's see, where am I? Did I spel Peloton right? Did I answer everyone's questions?

How do I know what my YTD actually is? All this money is in a Charles Schwab account and there is a tab called "Portfolio Performance" and it gives you your YTD and other time span results. I believe most trading apps do this too.

First, if I was someone that had a very conservative retirement I would still diversify by moving 10% into what you learn from Saul (notice I didn't say "buy what Saul buys") 🤔

Second, this knowing and sharing of our honest YTD and portfolio contents is truly a great way to measure what is real and what isn't. The bottom line is all that matters and it gets so cloudy with noise over signal. If you came here for a hug, caveat Fooler. Many many analysts write miles and miles of articles without ever sharing their YTD and also most of the time not even having any of the stocks they talk about.
Saul is consistent. He eats his own dog food, he has a dog in the fight, and he posts his portfolio and convictions at the end of every month. We are in very interesting times.

And yes, I do have a stable fund as a bad luck buffer.

MoSlo
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In 2018 I remember Saul saying that he had averaged 33% over the last 16 years. I believe that average will be higher now.

Math check: $10,000 * (1.33 ^ 16) = $958,575.
How likely is it that he turned $10,000 into almost a $million?


Jim Cramer claims to have produced a 24% average annual return over 14 years -- and few believe him.

These things must pass the smell test.
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No. of Recommendations: 8
Jim Cramer claims to have produced a 24% average annual return over 14 years -- and few believe him.

These things must pass the smell test.
-- Rayvt

Saul's board.... and his record is public knowledge for the last SEVEN years (come December) since that is when the board was started. Yeah, seven is not sixteen. Then again, it seems like the last seven have been a lot higher than 33%. The last seven years have been transformative for a lot of Fools.

Rob
Rule Breaker / Supernova Starshot Home Fool & STMP/MTH Maintenance Coverage Fool
He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain what he cannot lose.
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In 2018 I remember Saul saying that he had averaged 33% over the last 16 years. I believe that average will be higher now.

Math check: $10,000 * (1.33 ^ 16) = $958,575.
How likely is it that he turned $10,000 into almost a $million?

Jim Cramer claims to have produced a 24% average annual return over 14 years -- and few believe him.

These things must pass the smell test.



He posts his investments and results monthly - and doesn't trade so frequently that you can't check his calcs. It's for real. And I've been following him for a few years now and have been earning similar returns myself.
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But there was no moat around any of those, so Zoom came out of nowhere and is now eating their lunch because they -apparently- did it better. Because there is no moat, what's to say someone else won't come along and do it even better? With no barrier to entry, it is much more likely than if there were barriers.

Since Saul & Co keep a close eye on their companies, easier to do with so few, the rise of competition and impact on sales will, at some point, cause Saul to SELL. In the meanwhile there is plenty of money being made.

I think it is worth keeping in mind that Saul first bought Zoom well before the pandemic made it the blinding light it has become. I think I first bought, based on what I read on his board, in September and then again in October. It was doing that well before the pandemic!
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I think I first bought, based on what I read on his board, in September and then again in October. It was doing that well before the pandemic! -- RH

I bought ZM real late as well (like I did with Amazon.... bought just under $300). Got ZM somewhere around $200 and bought some $200 calls as well. I thought the argument made sense (why there would be further stunning gains in sales) and now it's a 13%+ position (#3 in our portfolio). Still holding on because the growth continues due to its ease of use, its reliability (major reasons why it's gaining share).... as well as the fact that future online conferencing looks to have a far higher utilization rate in organizations.

Rob
Rule Breaker / Supernova Starshot Home Fool & STMP/MTH Maintenance Coverage Fool
He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain what he cannot lose.
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Math check: $10,000 * (1.33 ^ 16) = $958,575.
How likely is it that he turned $10,000 into almost a $million?


Jim Cramer claims to have produced a 24% average annual return over 14 years -- and few believe him.

These things must pass the smell test.


Buy NFLX in October 2004 at $2.38. Sell today at $527. Compunded annual return of 40%.
And much easier than Saul's methods, using good old LTBH! Thank you Motley Fool.

Tim
Wish I'd bought 10x as much as I did back then...
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In 2018 I remember Saul saying that he had averaged 33% over the last 16 years.

I believe all of Saul's numbers as presented. His results while public are even better than his claimed previous results. By far.

But one thing to keep in mind is that Saul has his own way of calculating returns. It's perfectly reasonable, but it's not nearly as simple as "I started with X and now I have Y". Since he lives off of his investments he is constantly taking money out, and sometimes he moves money around. So he calculates his returns based on how much he has invested at any particular time, both in individual stocks and in his entire portfolio.

My problem with this was that my approach tends toward investing a little for a while until I'm comfortable, then going big. The result using his method is that if I invest $100 for a month and come out with $300 (so up 200%!), then invest $10,000 for a month and come out with $9,000 (so down 10%), I am credited with (more or less) an average return of up 170% over two months! This is true so far as it goes, but meanwhile I've actually lost $800. This is not exactly how his method works, which you can see described in detail in his KnowledgeBase, but it gives the idea. I think it all works out over time, but I find the short term numbers disturbingly wrong in a practical sense.

So, since I do lots of options and margin and other horrible, dangerous things, the only way I calculate returns is "I had that much and now I have this much" which works for me.

-IGU-
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But I don't think the criteria is the problem here. Consider Zoom (ZM). We had WebEx, the Apple product (FaceTime?), and a handful of others. Microsoft released Teams (which my company uses, as well as WebEx). But there was no moat around any of those, so Zoom came out of nowhere and is now eating their lunch because they -apparently- did it better. Because there is no moat, what's to say someone else won't come along and do it even better? With no barrier to entry, it is much more likely than if there were barriers.

And if you paid any attention to what they do there, you would know that "moats" are something they would consider mind-bogglingly irrelevant. The fact that you are talking about them means you have nothing relevant to contribute, wasting perfectly good electrons.

Their method requires paying attention. If somebody comes along that is eating the business because there is no moat, they don't care. They'll just get out and invest in something else, maybe the other guy who is doing the eating. So they lose 30% at the end of their run? So what? They made 400%. Cost of doing business. So sure, a moat of some sort might be nice, but they don't care.

Check out what Elon Musk had to say about moats recently (covered in a Fool article here: https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/10/19/moats-are-lame-3-t...).

First of all, I think moats are lame. It's nice sort of quaint in a vestigial way. If your only defense against invading armies is a moat, you will not last long. What matters is the pace of innovation. That is the fundamental determinant of competitiveness.

Consider that he was telling Warren Buffett that he was clueless, so you're in good (indeed, legendary) company. As it turns out though, Saul won't invest in TSLA because he doesn't think it's his kind of stock (and talk of Tesla is banned on his board because it's too divisive). C'est la vie.

If you want to invest in growth companies successfully, you have to change your mindset. If you don't you'll get whipsawed, because things can turn on a dime. This is not a game for people like Buffett.

-IGU-
(been there, lost lots of money)
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Following up on IGU's post, I calculate my returns "poorly". Meaning I know it is technically incorrect because I don't account for the timing of withdrawals.

My approach is simple (works for me)

January 1st value = $1000 (example)

Through the year, I take out different sums at different times. Timing irrelevant to me.

At any point in the year, I look at the current value, let's say $1200.... and add back all the money I've withdrawn... let's say $100. The total is $1300 and I conclude that my return at that point is 30%.

As it turns out, I take out a LOT each year. So far, I've withdrawn an amount equal to 13.8% of my January 1st portfolio. My approach to calculating returns substantially reduces the apparent return compared to the way the Fool and mutual funds figure it.... but accuracy isn't important to me for this purpose.

And, WITH adding that withdrawn amount back in, our returns so far are a bit over 100%. Crazy amazing. And I expect.... "assuming" no market correction.... another 15% or so by the end of the year.

And, in that case, we'll be withdrawing another 5% or so of that starting balance by year end.
**************

How? Buying high margin, subscription based, fast growth companies that make money for other companies.... and that look to dominate their field. Risky? Those characteristics overcome a lot of problems. One very old company example that *somewhat* follows these characteristics is Amazon. Another one is Netflix. Will my holdings grow into behemoths? Most of them, no. You have to keep up with the news and be willing to take them out back and shoot them if/when they falter. And move on to something else.

Is that a terrible way to invest? Not for me. It's partly what enabled me to go from near bankruptcy after a failed home building business to retiring early.

Not for you? No problem! But it IS quite useful for those who are interested.

Rob
Rule Breaker / Supernova Starshot Home Fool & STMP/MTH Maintenance Coverage Fool
He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain what he cannot lose.
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Hard to beat kahunacfa's 25% annual return over 40 years.

PSU
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Hard to beat kahunacfa's 25% annual return over 40 years. -- PSU

Is he still around? I remember it seemed he was posting everywhere.

Rob
Rule Breaker / Supernova Starshot Home Fool & STMP/MTH Maintenance Coverage Fool
He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain what he cannot lose.
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Obviously we can't know Saul's actual holdings. We have to take his word for it (as well as the others who post monthly updates). However, given the stated holdings it's not difficult to verify their numbers. PaulBryant, Saul, and several others post a lot of details and the numbers add-up.

FWIW.

I've purchased two Saul stocks, and one of them is up 38% (when I checked a few days ago) in about 2 months.

Like I said: it can be worthwhile to read that board.
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Is he still around? I remember it seemed he was posting everywhere.

He is nowhere now. TMF removed every one of his posts.

PSU
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He is nowhere now. TMF removed every one of his posts.

That sounds strange. Why would they do such a thing??
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Doing a bit of research.

There is THIS post that provides a cryptic explanation: https://boards.fool.com/looks-like-you-have-totally-removed-...

Looks like you have totally removed kahunacfa. How can we get that done?

areumad, it's not something we do on request. On rare occasion, we may remove an account record if we determine it's in the best interest of the member, the company, or in compliance with a competent court order.

We don't comment about a member's account for privacy reasons.


Now..... in rummaging around, I'm reminded (I had forgotten all this) that kahunacfa became WHOVPLLC.

Googling, I see something flagged as "last posts" dated 12/7/2017:

I used to live in Honolulu, Hawaii 1969-1972 when I was an Intelligence Data Processing Systems Analyst first as an O1 2LT to an O4 Major. I was good at what I did and was promoted every year.

My office was on a hill overlooking Pearl Harbor off in the far distance. I worked closely with Naval Intelligence on various highly classified projects.


********
Out of curiosity, I did some searching online a number of years ago and figured out where he lived in Hawaii, but I now forget his actual name and therefore can't determine if he's actually alive.

Rob
Rule Breaker / Supernova Starshot Home Fool & STMP/MTH Maintenance Coverage Fool
He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain what he cannot lose.
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The fact that you are talking about them means you have nothing relevant to contribute, wasting perfectly good electrons.

Apparently that's Saul's opinion, yes. Others did engage on the subject, and were at least aware of it.

As it turns out though, Saul won't invest in TSLA because he doesn't think it's his kind of stock (and talk of Tesla is banned on his board because it's too divisive). C'est la vie.

Yeah, I learned that pretty quickly. I probably started reading the board too late so have seen the conversations about TSLA that led to that decision. They seem to be mostly rational over there, looking at numbers, so I wonder how the conversation devolved that they would ban talk of TSLA.

I don't base my decisions entirely on moats (or I'd be in INTL...theirs is wide and deep), but I try to be aware of them and how they may be breached. So far I've been comfortable with two of Saul's stocks, and bought-in. Others, not so much. My decision. I won't just mimic him, and he advises against that. The two I've bought are doing well, and frankly those I haven't bought are also doing well (including ZM). As you said, c'est la vie.

And your TSLA is doing well, too. :-)

1poorguy
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No. of Recommendations: 3
MoneySlob writes:

Let's see. In July I went to all cash at 86% YTD. 3 reasons:
1--why get greedy?
2--Looking at my Charles Schwab 2 year performance there were 5 major bone jarring dips.
3--Covid and elections and many sources expressed extreme volatility. Saul even said that he was keeping the number of tickers to a minimum, only maintaining his highest convictions.

So, being all the way out and feeling lonely I crept in and out for the last 2 months using 15%-25% of my cash. Slowly, my YTD climbed to 90% today.
Looks great but it might have doubled if I had stayed in 100% like Saul et al did.
One other thing happened in 2019 which made me grateful just to stop at a measly 86% YTD (yeah I know, very liberal use of the word "measly"):
At the end of July 2019 I was up 102% YTD (read: "one hundred and two") and I decided to stay in > sector rotation > ending in 60% YTD. So, I just made a promise to myself, "what number would I halt my YTD at?".
(The gains for 2019 by the way beat Saul for that year and were totally a result of ENPH and a guy, putnid, who posted his gains were 150% due to ENPH on Saul's forum. I credit this to Saul and the people he attracts.)

Let's see, where am I? Did I spel Peloton right? Did I answer everyone's questions?

How do I know what my YTD actually is? All this money is in a Charles Schwab account and there is a tab called "Portfolio Performance" and it gives you your YTD and other time span results. I believe most trading apps do this too.

First, if I was someone that had a very conservative retirement I would still diversify by moving 10% into what you learn from Saul (notice I didn't say "buy what Saul buys") 🤔

Second, this knowing and sharing of our honest YTD and portfolio contents is truly a great way to measure what is real and what isn't. The bottom line is all that matters and it gets so cloudy with noise over signal. If you came here for a hug, caveat Fooler. Many many analysts write miles and miles of articles without ever sharing their YTD and also most of the time not even having any of the stocks they talk about.
Saul is consistent. He eats his own dog food, he has a dog in the fight, and he posts his portfolio and convictions at the end of every month. We are in very interesting times.

And yes, I do have a stable fund as a bad luck buffer.

MoSlo


Glad you got the word peloton ironed out. Next thing you know, you'll be tuning in next July to watch the Tour de France.

In terms of the bolded part and the reality that we are on the retirement investing board - I'm not sure any of us really want to be eating dog food in retirement. ;-)

At some point in time over the course of one's working career while saving for retirement all those decades, arriving at a destination financially to be able to say enough (as in no need to take on the risk of holding a concentrated basket of individual high growth stocks as our portfolio) could be well worthy of consideration.

Whether one has a portfolio of index funds and bond fonds, or a well diversified portfolio of individual stock and bond investments, or a hybrid approach of both combined with other streams of income in retirement (SS, pension, real estate rental income, royalties, etc...), many come to terms with what the word enough means for them - or at least should be contemplating coming to terms with it.

Although it sounds both fascinating as well as rather odd for a group of message board posters to be waving around their monthly gains to each other, I can't help but wonder if each has taken the time to address the idea of enough for their individual needs. Seems like a story that has the potential to not end well for those participating.

There are a couple of really excellent books to read on the subject:

Enough: True Measures of Money, Business, and Life - John Bogle

The Psychology of Money: Timeless lessons on wealth, greed, and happiness - Morgan Housel (former Motley Fool writer)

BB
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kahunacfa

Wow, that is a name from the past. He was "interesting".
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No. of Recommendations: 5
Although it sounds both fascinating as well as rather odd for a group of message board posters to be waving around their monthly gains to each other, I can't help but wonder if each has taken the time to address the idea of enough for their individual needs. Seems like a story that has the potential to not end well for those participating.

I wonder how many people told Warren Buffet that? Enough Warren you have a Billion dollars, how much more do you need? I think at this point it isn't about enough its more about seeing what you can do and what you are going to do. After I hit my last goal I had "enough" but now I am thinking just how many people's lives can i help in my family? The last family reunion was over 700 people so now it might not be "enough".

Andy
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No. of Recommendations: 3
Although it sounds both fascinating as well as rather odd for a group of message board posters to be waving around their monthly gains to each other, I can't help but wonder if each has taken the time to address the idea of enough for their individual needs. Seems like a story that has the potential to not end well for those participating.

Some of us look to more gains so we can help others. To that end, there is no limit to have much money is useful. And it's great to have those gains.

Rob
Rule Breaker / Supernova Starshot Home Fool & STMP/MTH Maintenance Coverage Fool
He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain what he cannot lose.
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Although it sounds both fascinating as well as rather odd for a group of message board posters to be waving around their monthly gains to each other, I can't help but wonder if each has taken the time to address the idea of enough for their individual needs. Seems like a story that has the potential to not end well for those participating.

My 2 cents. I am approaching retirement and have 'enough'. However, expecting to live many decades in retirement, and consistent with what any adviser will tell you, one does need to have exposure to equities, particularly when bonds pay nothing (and when one is self-funding, i.e. no pension). Growth stocks in a retired person's portfolio can still be fine if you're willing to watch them and act accordingly. I actually enjoy it and manage money for several family members. But it's absolutely not for everyone.
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No. of Recommendations: 6
The result using his method is that if I invest $100 for a month and come out with $300 (so up 200%!), then invest $10,000 for a month and come out with $9,000 (so down 10%), I am credited with (more or less) an average return of up 170% over two months!

A variation of the Beardstown Ladies problem. This stuff can get very tricky to compute correctly.
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Is he still around? I remember it seemed he was posting everywhere.

He is nowhere now. TMF removed every one of his posts.


I was told, several years ago, that he got Alzheimer's, and that is why his posts slowly descended into gibberish.
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I was told, several years ago, that he got Alzheimer's, and that is why his posts slowly descended into gibberish. -- Rayvt

Thanks for sharing that, Rayvt.

He was a bit eccentric :) but I found him to be both charming and helpful.

Rob
Rule Breaker / Supernova Starshot Home Fool & STMP/MTH Maintenance Coverage Fool
He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain what he cannot lose.
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A variation of the Beardstown Ladies problem. This stuff can get very tricky to compute correctly.

I agree with this Rayvt. I really don't listen to how much anyone's portfolio is up or down, I just go onto Saul's board for his take on companies. Most of the people that are reporting their portfolio's really are just a variation of Saul's anyway. I am not sure they would be doing so good if it wasn't for Saul. Also another problem with some of the posters is that they say they are up so much percentage and then when questioned you will find that is a small part of their investments but the majority of their portfolio is in an Index fund that they are not counting into their Returns.

But, with investing, I am not competing with anyone but myself and I like to listen to what other people are investing in only to see if I want it in my portfolio. What they are making doesn't matter to me and I can evaluate the company myself.

Andy
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No. of Recommendations: 3
The result using his method is that if I invest $100 for a month and come out with $300 (so up 200%!), then invest $10,000 for a month and come out with $9,000 (so down 10%), I am credited with (more or less) an average return of up 170% over two months!

A variation of the Beardstown Ladies problem. This stuff can get very tricky to compute correctly.


Reporting average returns doesn't make any sense if one is managing a portfolio.

The way to calculate investing returns if you are interested in comparing yourself to other investors, mutual funds, or market indices, is time-weighted returns. This is the industry standard and is how Lynch, Buffett, and every other famous investor reports their returns (though I couldn't comment on kahunacfa :-) ). It's not difficult, but it does require some care.

See this if you're interested: https://www.fool.com/about/how-to-calculate-investment-retur...

Cheers,
Jim
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The way to calculate investing returns if you are interested in comparing yourself to other investors, mutual funds, or market indices, is time-weighted returns. This is the industry standard and is how Lynch, Buffett, and every other famous investor reports their returns (though I couldn't comment on kahunacfa :-) ). It's not difficult, but it does require some care.

Well, then Saul does it correctly and it's just me that doesn't like the method producing weird results in some cases that I find too common. The example I provided, where I invest a little in something and then later invest a lot with very different results is one of those cases.

Or maybe the issue I have is that Saul applies this method of calculating returns not only to his entire portfolio, but also to individual investments within the portfolio. And that seems, for me, to produce some very odd numbers.

In any case, those guys are enormously successful however you want to measure it. But if you want to play that game you have to pay close attention and not mind serious volatility.

-IGU-
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This might be helpful for people.

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Calculating_personal_returns...

You can download an Excel or Google sheet.

Andy
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No. of Recommendations: 1
I have no idea if individual posters are providing returns for the rest of their portfolio, however, several call it out on their reports.

For me (following along and posting on Saul's board for a couple years, now), my ENTIRE portfolio, including equity in my home, and other illiquid investments is 87% as of Friday's market close.

My "Saul" stocks have increased in value by ~4x, but I have shifted significant funds through sales and asset transfers into that basket over the last 9 months, which does not easily allow me to calculate pure "Saul Stock" portfolio returns.

This does indeed work. It requires hours of personal research, hours of reading and constant hand holding around new information, new market data and company announcements.

(I am likely below average at the Saul board, but, who cares? We are all trying to help each other succeed, yes?)

I'll seek to continue giving back more than I receive. I will likely continue to lose ground on that front, however.
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We don't comment about a member's account for privacy reasons.

Perhaps then pull the posts commenting on a member's account ?
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Perhaps then pull the posts commenting on a member's account ?

Since I'm not a TMF employee, I'm not a member of "we".
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Since I'm not a TMF employee, I'm not a member of "we".

If you click, you'll find I wasn't replying to a post of yours. But I always thought you wouldn't do that kind of stuff anyway.
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