Skip to main content
Message Font: Serif | Sans-Serif
 
No. of Recommendations: 1
Things look a bit slow so I thought I would post this that I had already posted on the BRK board.

My mistake was not discovering Buffett properly until after the bubble had burst.
I was up 100% riding the momentum horse and thought a sensible (blue sky) plan
was enough. The bubble burst, I lost 50% to be back where I started 12 months
or so before.
I see it as a very good lesson that was very cheaply learnt. Thankfully I had kept
one blue chip that saved me from a big loss and thankfully it rose as the others
were falling.

The first lesson that I learnt was that I am a fundamentalist.
The second lesson that I learnt was that there is one single most important thing in
fundamental investing. ONE thing that everything else falls back on or underpins.
It is so basic. You see it said all the time without realising it is there because it gets
lost in so much other noise (good and bad).
What is it? Well it's the obvious - EARNINGS - current and future - all the other
noise is just trying to determine what these will be.
It seems stupid to point this out but it is suprising how many people appear to
forget it.
Don't get me wrong. A hell of a lot of the "noise" is very relevant. It's just that the
"noise" is the path not the destination.
One of the best quotes I have ever seen is one of Ben Graham's commentary of
the market. "In the short term it is a voting machine, in the long run it is a weighing machine."

Classon's "Richest Man in Babylon" is at the very top of my list as well as I have
said before. To this I would also add
all of Hagstroms Buffett books,
Mary Buffett's "Buffettology",
Kilpatrick's "Of Permanent Value-The Story of Warren Buffett",
Lynch's "One up on Wall Street",
Ben Graham's "Intelligent Investor",
Phillip Fisher's "Common Stock's & Uncommon Profits" *****
another one I haven't read called "The Essays of Warren Buffett" by Cunningham(?)
and all of the BRK "Letters to shareholders" from the BRK website.

All are easy quick reading apart from "Intelligent Investor" which is a bit slow but thoroughly worthwhile. You will be suprised how quickly you can get through this list. Reading these will probably end up being the best investment you will ever make.
You will not pick the exact path pointed out but you will be making your decision with some of the best information available.

Good luck.
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0

I was up 100% riding the momentum horse and thought a sensible (blue sky) plan was enough. The bubble burst, I lost 50% to be back where I started 12 months or so before.

So you were still up 50% from you initial outlays?, cause that seems like a reasonable return or do you mean that you had doubled your outlay at one stage & then after the crash only had your initial outlay left?

What has changed in you plan that will stop this happening again? ie: do your have stop loss sells on holdings?


Well it's the obvious - EARNINGS - current and future - all the other
noise is just trying to determine what these will be.
It seems stupid to point this out but it is suprising how many people appear to forget it.


YA future earnings, I pity you FA'ers trying to make such predictions.
Esp with all the shifty accounting that go's on.You might have a great formula for crunching the numbers but that aint gonna help if those figures you used to crunch are fluffy.I suppose free cash flow isn't a bad indicator when compared to sales income.

"Richest Man in Babylon"
Yep you can read this one in the book store, it's a wee ripper.

JR



Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0
My mistake was not discovering Buffett properly until after the bubble had burst.
I was up 100% riding the momentum horse and thought a sensible (blue sky) plan
was enough. The bubble burst, I lost 50% to be back where I started 12 months
or so before.


barcoo and board
absolutely agree 100% !!
regards
harmy

ps. not really back on board at moment - one finger typing and will shut
down shortly until i get to brisbane. good to see you all posting !!
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 1
YA future earnings, I pity you FA'ers trying to make such predictions.
Esp with all the shifty accounting that go's on.You might have a great formula for crunching the numbers but that aint gonna help if those figures you used to crunch are fluffy.I suppose free cash flow isn't a bad indicator when compared to sales income.


jr
fa and ta is the key to success imo - each to his/her own i say !!
regards
harmy
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0




Harmy, glad to see you came safely through you op, hope you are feeling A OK again..

(weather is cooling off a little up here, now it's safe to land,lol)

Take care..

FC.
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 1


Does it really matter what system people use? I think lot's
use both TA and FA, and variations of their own.

I look at any set-in-concrete investment theories with
suspicion,, why can we assume that a strategy that worked 10yrs
ago will be just as effective for the next 20 when all the variables
that can impact on an investment are different. wouldn't that
strategy need to be modified a little.?

If crystal balls and tea leaves work for you go with it I say!
The future is unknowable anyway,all the rest is a guess.



Best.
FC ,
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 1


Does it really matter what system people use?

In the selection of stocks maybe not as much as most think.
If your TA &,or FA is throwing up winning stocks it really don't matter which method you use.

But IMO you need a set up & exit strategy.I'd say that is even more important than which method you use. It really isn't that hard to identify stocks with good prospects , but turning that into a winning trade/investment is much harder & something that we all struggle with.

I don't think that being really good at Ta, FA or both is enough to beat the markets overtime. IMO the selling side is as important as the buy & the most important is the risk + reward ratio.

But thats my opinion.

Someone elses,
http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=16924038

JR
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 1


fa and ta is the key to success imo

Which do you put more weighting on?


each to his/her own i say !!

Well yes that go's without saying, Aust is a free country thank goodness. But the discussion of trading methods is the purpose of this board(&TMF), the presentation of these methods by dif posters & comments from other posters questioning those methods is good for us all.

The aim is not to propose that one has all the answers to investment riches, but to discuss these methods so as we can make an informed decision as to which method suits the individual poster best.

If all of us are to improve then questions need to be asked.

I don't see why that should be a problem & I don't understand why questioning a posters comments equates to knocking or naysaying that posters methods.

YA future earnings, I pity you FA'ers trying to make such predictions.

I mean this from my point of view, some may not find this daunting at all, each to her/his own.

Esp with all the shifty accounting that go's on.You might have a great formula for crunching the numbers but that aint gonna help if those figures you used to crunch are fluffy

I see the above as being true & a real problem for FA estimations but others don't , each to his/her own.

Nice action on the Kiwi dollar of late, nice timing Harmy.

JR




Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0


I look at any set-in-concrete investment theories with
suspicion,, why can we assume that a strategy that worked 10yrs
ago will be just as effective for the next 20 when all the variables
that can impact on an investment are different. wouldn't that
strategy need to be modified a little.?


Fc you've been posting for a while but I've no idea just what method(if any) you use, I'd be interested on knowing.

In short I agree, most trades that I undertake are a result of a number of positive TA signals from basics to more complicated Elliott wave & fib calculations, I don't rely or use one strategy rather a combination.
That works for me while others prefer a more mechanic type TA strategy.

JR

Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 2






"It really isn't that hard to identify stocks with good prospects , but turning that into a winning trade/investment is much harder & something that we all struggle with "


Darn right..
That's the hard part, money management and exits and all that.


Cheers.
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0

Hi JR,




"Fc you've been posting for a while but I've no idea just what method(if any) you use, I'd be interested on knowing."


Well nothing exciting.. Usually I look first and see if I can suss
which sorts of sectors may hopefully get lively for a while,
think about the current situation with interest rates, the economy
ect and then focus on a sector or two and buy breakouts. I dont
buy anything with poor fundamentals or the potential for too much
downside,ever.. (keeps me awake nights) mostly I hold till I have
made a decent profit, if things continue to look OK.

I dont use fib or gann or anything complex,-- I am saving that for when I become intelligent!

Anyone still awake.. pretty dull huh!( works ok for me though.)


Cheers,
FC.





Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0


Hey thanks FC now I've got a better feel of were your coming from.

( works ok for me though.)

Thats all that matters.

JR


Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0

Usually I look first and see if I can suss
which sorts of sectors may hopefully get lively for a while,
think about the current situation with interest rates, the economy
ect and then focus on a sector or two and buy breakouts


Fc which sectors do you like at the moment?

Do you see interest rates rising?

What triggers do you use to qualify that a stock has broken out & is buyable?

I dont use fib or gann or anything complex
Gann is a nightmare to me. I presume your talking support/resistance & trendline breaks, when you say nothing complex.

JR
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 1




Hi JR.

"which sectors do you like at the moment?"

Just guessin' here... I've been thinking oil and gas..
The finance sector has to be good as well..
( 'though the pe's in that sector are too high for my taste.)
A lot of baby boomers retiring soon though- their super will fatten
up Financial Services and funds I would think..

"Do you see interest rates rising"
very soon I reckon...that would sure slow down the housing
market if they go up much, end of bubble. what are your thoughts?

" What triggers do you use to qualify that a stock has broken out & is buyable?"

I usually bottom fish ( everyone says dont do that) and I just look
for a nice consolidating base and the beginning of an uptrend,I dont
find ma's that reliable though I like to look at the Chaikin)
sometimes I dont wait for the trend to establish and the whole thing
falls back down in the mud, but I'm learning patience.Then I just
hope it settles into a nice skinny little channel and keeps going up
My probs have been getting in too early and out too
early. I had a nice run on SOL recently, but sold out when I figured
the run had finished, but I think it's still going up, while I
figured it had reached top price..

Jono ,you obviously are a student of Gan and Fib, do you find
they help your trading much?
They must be a useful tool, as so many traders use them.
Me they just give a headache to.!

Cheers.
FC.
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 1


I usually bottom fish ( everyone says dont do that) and I just look
for a nice consolidating base and the beginning of an uptrend,I dont
find ma's that reliable though I like to look at the Chaikin)


Chaikin aint a bad indicator for intermediate moves. Nothing wrong with bottom fishing IMO as long as you buy on the break of base , you'll average more winners than losers. Buying during a base increases your chances of losing money or having to hold for extended periods.

sometimes I dont wait for the trend to establish and the whole thing
falls back down in the mud, but I'm learning patience


Yes it can be a problem I've suffered that myself, trying to anticipate rather than waiting for the correct break to enter.

My probs have been getting in too early and out too early. I had a nice run on SOL recently, but sold out when I figured the run had finished, but I think it's still going up, while I figured it had reached top price..

I think as you go on you'll nut that out, once you find entry & exit triggers your happy with.But it happens sometimes to everyone anyway maybe your just having a bit of a bad run.

very soon I reckon...that would sure slow down the housing
market if they go up much, end of bubble. what are your thoughts?


Yes & I think inflation has already started.

you obviously are a student of Gan and Fib, do you find
they help your trading much?


I don't use Gan. Elliott waves & fib are the ones I use.

They must be a useful tool, as so many traders use them.

Fib is great for corrective moves when your holding a stock or when your looking to buy a correction.Its also more than useful when your trying to predict the extent of a bullish/bearish move(esp accurate for indices)
Elliott wave is also very good IMO I always consider the wave counts when I'm checking out a stock & even more so when I'm looking at sectors.Not so great for short term entrys but longer term it's fantastic.
My feelings on Fib are very strong over the years I have often been surprised just how often stocks bounce/run from fib retracements & how the up & down waves are always related in some way to fib numbers.
Using fib & looking at the chart to see w'ere support & resistance is can really give you confidence of were a stocks bullish/bearish move will halt.


JR






Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0

fa and ta is the key to success imo

Which do you put more weighting on?


jr - bit difficult to type at the moment - will make it short !!
I put equal weight to both. fa is very important because it will throw up soundly based companies for you to select from. ta is then extremely important for the entry and exit points. it also mpnitors where the stock is heading bearing in mind that there are other factors that fa does not take into account ie sector movement
regards
harmy
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0
"I look at any set-in-concrete investment theories with
suspicion,, why can we assume that a strategy that worked 10yrs
ago will be just as effective for the next 20 when all the variables that can impact on an investment are different. wouldn't that
strategy need to be modified a little.?"


Cassie- if you are applying this to Buffett - then it is obvious that you haven't read up on him.
-if you are applying it to earnings - yeh I suppose there is a very small chance that they were just a fleeting, trendy indicator to base our decisions on, but personally I see no reason they shouldn't be reliable into the infinite future.

Cassie, I suggest you get a plan. Sooner or later, just "doing it by feel" will bring you unstuck.

A couple of cleches come to mind.
He/she who ignores history is condemned to repeat it.
The more things change the more they stay the same.

Your TA models were invented many years ago, are they still relevant?

Cassie, what makes you think that "all the variables that can impact on an investment are different" now than in the past?
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0
do you mean that you had doubled your outlay at one stage & then after the crash only had your initial outlay left?
Yes. As I said a very valuable lesson learnt cheaply.

What has changed in you plan that will stop this happening again?

I cannot guarantee against a future 50% loss. I am not a fortune teller.
but-
I use the KISS principle.
I buy a margin of safety.
I basically ignore the stock price (with regard to sell decisions)for at least 2 years if nothing else has changed. Mind you, if I got a 5 or 10 bagger in less than 2 years I might have a look at a few things.
I have a predetermined list of the 10 or so stocks I want to buy. These have already passed a certain criteria I am just waiting for them to get under "my buy price". There are a few that I am having trouble "putting" a price range on - high p/e stocks. I want to buy earnings ,not blue sky.

You might have a great formula for crunching the numbers but that ain't gonna help if those figures you used to crunch are fluffy
That's why one of the criteria is management.
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0




Thanks for your thoughts JR. All input helps!


Best.
FC
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0

Barcoo, do you still play the spec's? if so do you use FA.

Like cag, I mean is that a example of one of your FA stocks that passed your criteria? I seem to remember that you said somewhere at sometime that your liked the fundamentals on this one.

Or is cag more of a left over from your Tech plays?

I'm only interested not trying to bait you but IMO FA is really hard when you start looking at the smaller spec stocks.Whats your thoughts on that ?

JR

Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0

Fc your welcome.

One of the problems that I've encountered & still don't have a good plan to counter is the drifters IE:Clo. You don't get the gains your looking for & it don't fall so low as to take you out.I end up holding them longer than I'd like & often could use the capital else were for a better return, so thats my number one aim to figure out those type of holdings a bit better.

Another thing that I failed at last year was missing the Chemical sector bull run even though I picked that the sector would be buyable. I failed to catch any of the upside with Orica doubting my TA & relying on my own thoughts that it would correct the break of the base to a higher % then it did, wrong wrong wrong.

Hey if it was easy we would all get bored I'm sure.

JR I will get better.
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0



Barcoo, I was generalising about LTBH, I dont feel that it is
very realistic to buy a company with the expectation that it will
live forever..Companies are like any other living thing imop.
They are born, thrive (or sometimes dont thrive) and eventually
die off ( or get taken over.) You just want your money in there
while it's healthy and prosperous surely. You can't know the lifespan
of a company any more certainly than you know your own. So why should
investors hang around for the bad times? Even Buffett said that his
way isn't for everyone.. but if it works for you, thats the way to do
it.


"Cassie, what makes you think that "all the variables that can impact on an investment are different" now than in the past?"

Well, I think we invest a lot more in companies that are International
companies. more so than 20 yrs ago. then there's globalisation and
so on. Technology is putting a lot of people out of a job as well.
Pretty hard to speculate when the world changing so fast.

'"TA models were invented many years ago, are they still relevant?'"
Interesting question.. I think you would have to get a TA
expert to answer that.. What I use still works for me though.
(but I am not a pro trader.!)

"Cassie- if you are applying this to Buffett - then it is obvious that you haven't read up on him."

Yes I was and no I havn't. His methods don't make sense to me.
lovely clever old bloke though..

Cheers..



FC.
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0

JR.

"doubting my TA & relying on my own thoughts that it would correct the break of the base to a higher % then it did, wrong "

Infuriating isnt it!
The analytical mind is very hard to subdue when looking at charts.
and always thinks it know's better, usually the chart
knows better I find in most cases. Hard to tell your critical
mind to shuddup though isn't it. Good old analysis paralysis hey..
( Gets me all the time.)

Hope you dont have to sell Clo.. they should be set to make a
fortune if there's an oil boom, and they just got a big 66mil
contract up in Cairns.. I guess the best thing is if you want
to freeup capital you can always buy in later, but that costs!
It's a dilemma.!
I have my own drifter in HWE.. its still having attacks of the
dry staggers. red one day green the next, like a broken traffic
light.

Cheers. FC.




















Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0
Barcoo, do you still play the spec's? if so do you use FA.

Like cag, I mean is that a example of one of your FA stocks that passed your criteria? I seem to remember that you said
somewhere at sometime that your liked the fundamentals on this one.

Or is cag more of a left over from your Tech plays?

I'm only interested not trying to bait you but IMO FA is really hard when you start looking at the smaller spec stocks.Whats
your thoughts on that ?


Yes I would still play the specs but < 5% I think would be a preferable figure. Strictly play money.
Yes I would put CAG in the "leftover from the tech plays" basket. Don't know if I said I liked the fundamentals or not and I agree that FA can be really hard on these types of stocks. Sometimes they haven't even got any to analyse. It's a matter of weighing up the probabilities against the payoff. There are a few more specs that I like but haven't checked on for a while. I wouldn't use the same entry requirements for these as I do for the bulk of my portfolio but if they meet most of the criteria then all the better.
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0
Barcoo, I was generalising about LTBH, I dont feel that it is
very realistic to buy a company with the expectation that it will
live forever..Companies are like any other living thing imop.
They are born, thrive (or sometimes dont thrive) and eventually
die off ( or get taken over.) You just want your money in there
while it's healthy and prosperous surely. You can't know the lifespan
of a company any more certainly than you know your own. So why should
investors hang around for the bad times? Even Buffett said that his
way isn't for everyone.. but if it works for you, thats the way to do
it.


Cassie,
this is not what Buffett does, and if your description is of LTBH then I want no part of it. It doesn't mean hold on forever even if the company is dieing. I agree that you can't know the lifespan of the company. What you can do is read every annual and half year report and the odd newspaper article. If things are going to the pack terminally - then you sell.

Well, I think we invest a lot more in companies that are International companies. more so than 20 yrs ago. then there's globalisation and so on. Technology is putting a lot of people out of a job as well. Pretty hard to speculate when the world changing so fast.

Cassie, sorry to differ but these aren't new things. Look at the last 120 years. It's full of this sort of stuff. As I said - the more things change the more they stay the same.

Yes I was and no I havn't. His methods don't make sense to me.
lovely clever old bloke though..

Sorry Cassie I don't mean to be rude - but you don't even know what his methods are so how do you know they make no sense to you?

Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0


Barcoo,

"Sorry Cassie I don't mean to be rude - but you don't even know what his methods are so how do you know they make no sense to you..."


Fair critisism Barcoo,I stand corrected.
I havn't studied him, Buffett is a very deep subject!
Some of the things he is quoted as saying though really
put me off exploring any further..

Hagstrom quotes him---

"Buffett is blunt: Unless you can watch stock holdings decline by 50 percent without becoming panic-stricken, you should not be in the stock market"
and of course the famous comment about not holding a stock for 5
minutes if you wouldn't hold it for 50 years( or words to that effect.)

Really I dont feel comfortable with those concepts.. but should people want to do it that way, more power to 'em!

Did you like O'Neill's books by the way ?

Best regards.



FC.

Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0
Cassie,
I think you might be surprised. I think you probably would agree very strongly with Buffett's methods.
Buy a good business with growth prospects, with good management at a sizeable discount to its' true value.
Pretty basic isn't it.
All of the above points give you a "margin of safety" in the long term, so that you can be confident (if your reasoning in picking the stock has been right), that if the price falls by 50% you should not sell - you should back up the truck and buy a heap more. ie if it was worth $15, it was a buy at $10, and it is twice as good a buy at $5.

Haven't read O'Neill yet. Did you recommend him? I did a search back and couldn't find anything about him. Care to make a recommendation? Our local library is fairly basic but they should be able to get something in for me.
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 1
"Haven't read O'Neill yet."


Barcoo my apologies--- I must have confused you with someone
else who was talking about O'Neil, oops, sorry.

They are really interesting books, he sets out his Canslim
methodology in "24 Essential Lessons for Investment Success"

The other one I have is "How to make Money in Stocks" both by
William J ONeil,

I dont know how much of a following he has here, but his
criteria for buying and selling are really severe.Probably
Canslim works best in a big bull market with lots of volume..
Not sure if it would work here though. I saw a post a few months
ago, and someone has put together funds using various experts
methods ( cant remember if they were real funds or just for
the purpose of research) anyhow over some years Canslim was a standout
and I think the other was Zweig, (wish I had bookmarked the post)
Anyhow if you get time to read the books be interested to know
what you think of him...

Best regards.
FC.
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0

ahh. found the post I was referring to;




http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=16504233

Cheers..
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0

agree very strongly with Buffett's methods

Hey Barcoo & All esp when I looked at the silver buying he did a while ago, almost like a trader.

It's true also that many of the most followed long term TA preachers systems through up many stocks that qaulify as undervalued from a FA point of view. Esp if you were to use only say top 200 stocks.

One of the main things that seperates the two systems, in general , it seems to me is, Ta has much stricker entry & exits were most value Fa systems are looser on entrys & exits.

Now of cause they a totaly dif in their methods to qaulify the stocks & if you perform your fa well one could argue(as Harmy proposed) that you are only dealing with undervalued quality, were TA alone could throw more iffy ones.

I think Harmys system is a very good idea from a risk reward point of view.

Anyone see any negatives in Harmys approach?

JR
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 1
Probably
Canslim works best in a big bull market with lots of volume..


Cass
Maybe have been me !! Read both books - I think CANSLIM would work well in a bull market but nearly impossible to select stocks based on his criteria in a bear. Good stuff though !!
Regards
Harmy
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0
it seems to me is, Ta has much stricker entry & exits were
most value Fa systems are looser on entrys & exits.

Sorry,I think it is "sort of" misleading.
If you mean looser as "buy at less than..." and "sell above ....." then you could appear to be correct. BUT there is a lot more criteria to FA than just the price data.
I personally would not say that FA was looser. I would say that very strict criteria should be met and if they are not then you don't buy the stock.
But one of the criteria (valuation) can have a different value depending on what other figures you put into the equation. The main ones of these being growth and interest rates which being "rubbery" figures account for the different valuations.
This valuation will obviously affect the price that you are willing to pay. And Joe Bloggs from down the road may have come up with a different valuation and be prepared to pay a different price.
If my normal criteria says that I buy good stocks when they are 30% undervalued, and my figures tell me that CML is 30% undervalued at $5.27, then if I buy CML at $5.50- it doesn't mean that the FA is looser. It means that I didn't adhere to the letter of my plan.

The same could be said of TA. Different methods of TA will come up with different buy and sell points for a share. Doesn't mean that's "loose" either.

Barcoo
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0


Hi Harmy,thanks for that -

( was worried that I was imagining things)

Be really interested to hear your op on Canslim generally....
overall do you think it's really viable for Aus. stocks.
disregarding bear or bull markets, just generally speaking.

I was thinking that it would be
difficult to do here without a lot of fiddling---


Hope you are feeling better..

FC.
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0

I understand your points.

Most of the long term TA entrys are triggered when a stock breaks from a long base , at this point yes those dif TA methods have variations to qualify the entry.

FA says that a stock is undervalued at a certain price & should therefore be brought. The loosness IMO is in that the stock may be undervalued at the FA(buy figure) entry but Mr market could base for 2, 3 years (banding sideways in that time) or he may undervalue the shares further before revalueing or overvalueing the stock for your FA exit. That is the main dif IMO

JR
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0

From a TA angle I like the volume confirmation entry in canslim.

It's one of my rules.One big day of volume with no follow through even on a break is not buyable, the stock may rally but it will lack power.
This rule works more often than it dosn't.

JR Butting in again.
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0



"From a TA angle I like the volume confirmation entry in canslim."

Thanks JR, I must remember that.. I've fallen into that
pothole more than once, now I know what happened..

No I sold OSH,but I've been looking at it again lately,
I thought it might go down a bit more yet, but it's on the watchlist..
What do you think..

Here's what I like in the oil sector..

AWE,HDR,CNA,STO,OCA.
of those I really like HDR,and STO,


HDR for a speccie and STO for longer I was thinking--

Cheers..







Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0

I'd wait a bit with sto the downtrends not broken & it may test that support just above $5.50 , its traveling alright today but Ya IMO it's not a buy yet.

Hdr looks OK


I like PSA IOC & AYO

This time +

JR
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0

Sorry FC ,RE OSH That volume keeps impressing me I'm tempted.

JR



Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 1






Hey JR good luck, you'd know best ..
FC.

Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0
Be really interested to hear your op on Canslim generally....
overall do you think it's really viable for Aus. stocks.
disregarding bear or bull markets, just generally speaking.


Cass
I think CANSLIM works well in a bull market and in markets where there is lots of momentum and a high turnover of stock on a daily basis. The principle of CANSLIM is fairly basic but you do need these things to apply to a stock to see if it is a CANSLIM candidate. A lot of Oz stocks simply don't the daily turnover for a start. I think that in the right market and working with selected stocks it would work. However, while I believe O'Neill knows what he is talking about there are a number of drawbacks - to my knowledge there is no equivalent to the IBD in the Oz scene.
FWIW my view is that if you have to "fiddle" a system to make it work you may well end up getting it wrong which, in the end, will cost you money.
I really work on a very basic system of FA and TA which so far has worked well for me
Regards
Harmy
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0


Appreciate your insight Harmy, thanks very much.

I doubt that my fiddling would improve things!!
(I fiddle while money burns would be the likely outcome of that)





Best regards.
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0







JR, had another look at STO .. you're right--
it's still on a downer...

( learning not to rush in and anticipate for a change.)


Cheers..
Print the post Back To Top