No. of Recommendations: 0
IOW, greed.

Yup. I'm as guilty as anyone. Rather than using a sensible bear-friendly
blend at all times, I use a what's-working-lately approach that uses
trailing 2-month screen returns for the greed side, and long history of
rolling-2-month downside deviations for the safety side, with a coefficient on each.
I include the short screens, but not the SOS's.
Oddly enough, it works best with a small negative coefficient on
the long run CAGR of the screens---a way of avoiding the overtuned maybe?
It seems to have been pretty good this year. Had I followed it exactly
as designed, it would be up about 19% for the first half of this year.

Print the post  


What was Your Dumbest Investment?
Share it with us -- and learn from others' stories of flubs.
When Life Gives You Lemons
We all have had hardships and made poor decisions. The important thing is how we respond and grow. Read the story of a Fool who started from nothing, and looks to gain everything.
Contact Us
Contact Customer Service and other Fool departments here.
Work for Fools?
Winner of the Washingtonian great places to work, and Glassdoor #1 Company to Work For 2015! Have access to all of TMF's online and email products for FREE, and be paid for your contributions to TMF! Click the link and start your Fool career.