Prior to the dropping of the atom bombs on Japan, one of the scientists working on the project met with FDR and asked that the weapon not be used. He said that he had federal agents following him around lest he divilge the tinests little secret about the bomb. However, the bigget atomic bomb secret was that "It could be Done." The Germans abandoned their program after Werner heisenberg said that it wouldn't work.Similarly, a worker at the Tokyo Telecommunications Company, later called Sony, developed a tape recorder based on a description of a device the Germans were using to record interrogations. His only description was that it worked.So the democrats got done the bare minimum of what they needed to get done, winning back the house. They also came close in a number of races that would have been out of the realm of possibilities a few years ago: senate seats in Texas and Arizona, governorship in GA, and they actually won a bunch of House seats including one that was considered safe for republicans in Oklahoma.So what did we learn: Charismatic candidates do better than "I deserve it," focus on getting out your own voters rather than seeing how indistinguishable you can make yourself from the republicans, engage the grwoing Hispanic minority.What is up for 2020: Republicans will be defending 5 governorships vs 3 for democrats and at least 21 senate seats vs 10 for the democrats. Also 2020 will be a census year with a redistricted House starting in 2022. Also between now and then there will be more indictments and fallout from the Muller investigation and a congress that is actively investigatin the corruption of the current administration. 2018 was a bit of a wash, but it marks an end to the republican advance in control of the government and given the demographics maybe and end to the republican party in its current form. Imagine the presidential campaign in 2020 where the republican has to actually compete for states like Texas and Georgia.V.
the republican has to actually compete for states like Texas and Georgia.I think you make a logical error in assuming that the GA governor and the TX senate race are good analogs for 2020 POTUS.One could just as easily say that Abbott's win in TX (55-43) which was also a statewide race is the proper analog to 2020. I am pretty sure that Cruz was the WORST performing statewide race in TX. All of the others appear to have been stronger results for the reps.And as far as GA, I don't think one can expect the same results there unless the demographics are the same (black female dem POTUS candidate). We can see some signs of this even in the current election as other down ballot statewide races in GA were not nearly as close.The (Rep) Commissioner of Ag for GA actually has more votes (over 2,000,000) than Kemp (1.9 million currently). The rep won that race 53% to 47%. This might be a better analog for 2020 than the Gov race.
"I am pretty sure that Cruz was the WORST performing statewide race in TX"Not sure it was bad, he still got the votes and against a nationalized opponents with 10's of millions of dollars of outside support. In other words, Cruz beat the most hyped, most helped, best funded opponent of the entire midterm.
"I think you make a logical error in assuming that the GA governor and the TX senate race are good analogs for 2020 POTUS.... One could just as easily say that Abbott's win in TX (55-43) which was also a statewide race is the proper analog to 2020."Certainly true if the republicans nominate someone like Greg Abbott for president. If it is someone like Ted Cruz, or worse yet Donald Trump, copnsider that the population of Texas is 47% Hispanic, 12% Black and 5% other minorities. Texas became a majority minority state a while ago... just like California. California democrats were fortunate enough to have Pete Wilson, a republican governor, that turned its Hispanic population solidly democrat. There hasn't been an organizing force in Texas, positive or negative. Trump 2020 could be that organizing force.V.
best funded opponent you're complaining when your party's the one that wanted no limits on "speech"?!
"Not sure it was bad, he still got the votes and against a nationalized opponents with 10's of millions of dollars of outside support. "Time Magazine would make you out to be a liar. http://time.com/money/5440193/beto-campaign-money-map-midter...
Certainly true if the republicans nominate someone like Greg Abbott for president. If it is someone like Ted Cruz, or worse yet Donald Trump???Trump won Texas 52-43 in 2016 - about the same as Abbott.While you and I might think Trump is terrible, clearly that is not a view shared by everyone. I don't know if we will ever know or not but my assumption, as well Trump's personal belief, is that his visits to Florida and Texas in the last week are what put those candidates over the top.And, while you think it takes someone like Trump to organize resistance, it ALSO takes someone like Beto to get out the vote.Dems have to avoid another Hillary in 2020 and I am not currently placing odds on that happening.
Dems have to avoid another Hillary in 2020 and I am not currently placing odds on that happening. Not to rehash the past too much, but I think the biggest problem Hillary had was some failures in her campaign strategy. Her campaign took a bit too much for granted and failed to campaign sufficiently in a few states that were more borderline than they thought. Hillary herself wasn't a great candidate, but then again, neither was Trump. I think there were a fair number of people who held their noses and voted for Trump simply because he was at least running as a Republican.Looking ahead to 2020, the biggest problem I see for the Democrats is the lack of any good candidates with some national name recognition. --Pelosi - too old - she'll be 80 by then. (Trump is the oldest at his first election at 71. Regan was older - 73 - for his second term.)--Warren - has said multiple times she's not interested.--Biden - could be a good candidate, but he'd also be 78 at the time of the election. Plus he's said he doesn't want to run.--O'Rourke - It's hard to run for President when you aren't currently in some office. (Lincoln and Trump notwithstanding) Still, he could make things interesting.--Gavin Newsome - He just won the governorship of CA after being lieutenant governor for the last 8 years. It's been commented that every CA governor has some aspirations to the US Presidency. And he likely does. But he doesn't have enough name recognition. At least not yet.--Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez - Has some name recognition, but has a different age problem. She won't be 35 yet in 2020. Give her another decade or two.--Oprah Winfrey - Why would a successful billionaire want to run for public office??That's just a quick list of people I know of. I'm sure there are others - but probably lacking a bit in name recognition. That's not a complete bar to running, of course. But it does make it harder to run successfully.--Peter
ptheland: That's just a quick list of people I know of. I'm sure there are others...Amy Klobuchar. Landslide victory to her third senate term. Yale graduate and a JD from the University of Chicago. Elected convincingly by blue-collar voters in rural areas (meaning, she will be a problem for president Trump). Whip smart and articulate.
That's just a quick list of people I know of. I'm sure there are othersI think you missed some of the top candidates. In fact, I think the majority of contenders aren't on your list:Bernie SandersKamala HarrisCory BookerKlobuchar (mentioned upthread)Gillibrand or CuomoIt also wouldn't be surprising to see Kaine or Merkley testing the waters as Young Biden and Young Sanders, respectively; especially if their elder versions stay out of the race. Deval Patrick and Julian Castro might jump in as Team Obama candidates if Biden stays out as well.Albaby
Did you see the Bloomberg TV ad in the final days? I could not help but think that it was designed as a future POTUS advertisement.Pretty strong.https://adage.com/article/campaign-trail/mike-bloomberg-spen...
I could not help but think that it was designed as a future POTUS advertisement.He's got the money to run, but does he have a lane to run in? Former Republican Financial Services Billionaire is a hard spot to start a Democratic primary campaign.Albaby
"... my assumption, as well Trump's personal belief, is that his visits to Florida and Texas in the last week are what put those candidates over the top."As always, you win not by pandering to some imainged middle but by turning out your own voters."And, while you think it takes someone like Trump to organize resistance, it ALSO takes someone like Beto to get out the vote."The candidates do matter."Dems have to avoid another Hillary in 2020."Given the closeness of the election, there are about 20 distinct things that HRC and the DNC did that potentially were decisive. However, the same electoral college factors that were in polay in 2016 get even more pronounced in 2020. There are enough electoral votes in states like CA, NY, IL that all but the most incompetant democrat starts of with about 180 of the 270 needed to win. That obviously discounts the states the HRC lost that every other democrat had won for the past 20 years, as well as the states she just barely won like NH and MN, as well as the states she won that flip back and forth like CO and NM.V.
""I am pretty sure that Cruz was the WORST performing statewide race in TX""Beppo Kerry performed worse, unless one believes the absurd spin that he won by losing.
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